America's advanced manufacturers are adding uranium to their list of critical raw materials that must be sourced from foreign suppliers. Tech giants are increasingly turning to nuclear energy to power massive data centers being built across the country to support the next wave of artificial intelligence. And that means ensuring a stable uranium supply. Christo Liebenberg, co-founder and president of U.S.-based LIS Technologies Inc., foresees "a collision course between America's AI boom and the uranium supply chain." The problem: foreign suppliers account for 99% of the uranium concentrate needed for nuclear fuel. From a supply chain perspective, U.S. uranium production has experienced a 95%+ decline since the end of the Cold War and now operates limited facilities in Wyoming, Texas, Utah, and New Mexico.
Canada, Kazakhstan, and Australia currently make up the vast majority of America's uranium imports. (Russia, another major producer, is barred from transferring low-enriched uranium to the U.S. under legislation signed by President Biden in August 2024, though exemptions are permitted under certain conditions.) Liebenberg says the uranium supply chain is a "real bottleneck" in efforts to produce sufficient nuclear energy to support AI development. The U.S. currently generates approximately 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity, a level President Trump has committed to quadrupling by 2050. From a supply chain perspective, Cameco (Canada), Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan), BHP (Australia Olympic Dam), Orano (France), Rosatom (Russia), CGN and CNNC (China) are the major players in global uranium production and conversion.
The uranium supply chain actually consists of five separate components: mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, and fuel production. From a supply chain perspective, uranium enrichment is performed using centrifuge cascade technology and has historically been dominated by Russia (Tenex), URENCO (UK, Germany, Netherlands), Orano (Tricastin France), and CNNC. The U.S. lacks enrichment capacity except for Centrus Energy's HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) facility in Piketon Ohio and Urenco USA's Eunice facility in New Mexico. SMR (Small Modular Reactor) platform developers include NuScale, X-energy, TerraPower (Bill Gates), BWXT, GE Hitachi BWRX-300, Rolls-Royce SMR, and Holtec SMR-300.
From a supply chain perspective, data center electricity demand could represent 9-12% of total consumption in the U.S. by 2030, according to EPRI and Goldman Sachs projections. Microsoft has signed a 20-year PPA with Constellation Energy to bring Three Mile Island Unit 1 back online. Amazon is purchasing a data center adjacent to Talen Energy's Susquehanna reactor. Google has signed an SMR agreement with Kairos Power. Meta has launched an RFP. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers PTC/ITC incentives for nuclear. NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) licensing timelines remain one of the sector's major bottlenecks. Robert J. Bowman, senior editor at SupplyChainBrain, covers the topic. In conclusion, rebuilding the U.S. uranium supply chain is positioned among strategic priorities for the AI era.
Key Points:
1. The U.S. sources 99% of uranium concentrate from foreign suppliers.
2. Christo Liebenberg foresees a collision course between the AI boom and uranium supply.
3. Russia was banned by Biden in August 2024.
4. Trump has pledged to quadruple nuclear capacity by 2050.
5. The supply chain consists of 5 components: mining, milling, conversion, enrichment, and fuel production.
