The global bunker fuel market entered a phase of relative stabilisation during Week 20. The 380 HSFO index declined by US$ 6.17 to US$ 776.65/MT, while the VLSFO index recorded a moderate increase of US$ 4.44 to US$ 943.89/MT. The MGO LS index decreased by US$ 6.57 to US$ 1,404.00/MT. Market analyst Sergey Ivanov noted that prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply concerns.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — increased by US$ 10.61 to US$ 167.24, remaining comfortably above the US$ 100.00 breakeven threshold. At the Port of Rotterdam, the SS Spread contracted sharply by US$ 35.00 to US$ 96.00, falling below the critical threshold. At the Port of Singapore, the spread narrowed marginally by US$ 1.00 to US$ 125.00, temporarily dropping to US$ 87.00 during the week. Overall, the SS Spread lacked a clear directional trend but continued to support the economic attractiveness of scrubber usage versus VLSFO consumption.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the conflict involving Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping the medium-term outlook for the global gas market. LNG availability has declined by an estimated 15% due to the conflict and the shutdown of one of the world's key energy transit routes. Europe is expected to require an additional 10 bcm of natural gas this summer to replenish depleted gas inventories that fell to multi-year lows by the end of the heating season. The IEA estimates that current supply disruptions and slower LNG capacity growth could result in a cumulative loss of around 120 bcm of global LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.
European underground gas storage levels reached 35.57% of total capacity as of May 12, up 1.50 percentage points from the previous week. However, current storage levels remain 25.89% below the 61.46% recorded at the beginning of the year. The European TTF gas benchmark eased marginally to EUR 46.684/MWh. The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the Port of Sines, Portugal, decreased by US$ 46.00 to US$ 1,059/MT, offering a US$ 220 advantage over MGO LS.
At the end of Week 20, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) showed that Port of Fujairah moved into the overvalued zone in both the 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments. Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston remained in the undervalued zone, although discount levels narrowed. In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port. Analysts expect bunker fuel price volatility to remain elevated, potentially creating conditions for a renewed upward trend in the SS Spread next week.
Key Takeaways:
1. 380 HSFO index declined by US$ 6.17 to US$ 776.65/MT, while VLSFO increased by US$ 4.44 to US$ 943.89/MT.
2. MABUX Global Scrubber Spread rose by US$ 10.61 to US$ 167.24, remaining above the US$ 100.00 breakeven threshold.
3. Iran-Hormuz crisis reduced LNG availability by 15%, IEA forecasts cumulative loss of 120 bcm of global LNG supply between 2026 and 2030.
4. European gas storage reached 35.57% of capacity but remains 25.89% below year-start levels, Europe to import additional 10 bcm this summer.
5. Port of Fujairah moved into overvalued zone in 380 HSFO and VLSFO segments, while Rotterdam and Singapore remained undervalued.
