Last month's Geneva Dry conference in Switzerland revealed an unexpected revival in global coal trade. Industry representatives emphasized that rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have created natural gas supply risks, driving countries back to thermal coal. In a session moderated by D'Amico Dry COO Benjamin Wilkes, participants discussed coal's resilience and how energy security is overshadowing the decarbonization agenda. Wilkes noted, "Coal has proven incredibly resilient; it's constantly being written off, but it keeps coming back."
Arrow research firm's Head of Research Burak Çetinok disclosed that seaborne coal trade contracted 4% in early 2025, representing a 60 million ton cargo loss. However, with escalating tensions around Hormuz, the outlook shifted rapidly. "We're experiencing an energy crisis now; demand for coal is rising again, and I believe this is just the beginning," Çetinok said. Arrow estimates the current crisis could generate 55 to 65 million tons of additional coal demand in global markets, potentially absorbing approximately 100 Capesize vessels from the spot market.
Seanergy Maritime Chairman and CEO Stamatis Tsantanis stated that 40% of the company's fleet remains engaged in coal shipping, observing strong demand on Australia-Far East, Colombia-Far East, and Australia-Europe long-haul routes. Star Bulk Carriers Operations Director Nicos Rescos highlighted that governments are increasingly focusing on energy supply security and strategic reserves. "The narrative is changing; circles previously focused solely on decarbonization now recognize the importance of energy security," Rescos said. Europe, Japan, and South Korea are reassessing the lifespan of coal-fired power plants, while China was noted as the best-prepared country for current crises.
Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings Managing Director William Fairclough noted that China learned lessons from the 2021 energy crisis, focusing on strengthening coal security, with 60% of electricity generation still sourced from coal. "Decarbonization remains a long-term strategy, but energy security has become the top priority today," Fairclough stated. India is also rapidly expanding coal-based energy capacity, while Indonesia's export quotas are creating new uncertainties in global markets. Çetinok assessed that weather-dependent production fluctuations from renewable energy sources could lead to sudden spikes in coal demand in the future.
One of the strongest messages from the panel was that dry bulk vessel supply will remain constrained. Tsantanis indicated that approximately 1,100 dry bulk vessels will reach 20 years of age within the next three years, while Chinese shipyard capacity for new construction is largely fully booked until 2030. "The real issue in the market is vessel supply," Tsantanis said, noting that current conditions are supportive for dry bulk shipowners. Fairclough stated that 60% of Wah Kwong's Kamsarmax fleet activities are linked to coal trade, observing, "People don't like talking about this, but coal remains one of the market's cornerstones."
Key Takeaways:
1. Strait of Hormuz tensions are driving countries back to thermal coal due to natural gas supply risks.
2. Arrow research firm estimates the current crisis could generate 55-65 million tons of additional coal demand globally.
3. Seanergy Maritime's fleet remains 40% engaged in coal shipping; strong demand observed on Australia-Far East routes.
4. China sources 60% of electricity generation from coal; energy security has become top priority over decarbonization.
5. 1,100 dry bulk vessels will reach 20 years of age within three years; shipyard capacity fully booked until 2030, keeping vessel supply constrained.
