Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on May 13, 2026, reveals that flows of crude oil and petroleum liquids through the Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026. Throughput declined to 14.6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, down from 20.4 million in the same period a year earlier and 20.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025—representing a drop of approximately 30%. The strait has been effectively closed since the outbreak of the Iran–U.S. conflict in late February, triggering what the International Energy Agency has called the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
The EIA's inaugural Global Energy Security Dataset report highlights how supply chains are reconfiguring as flows are diverted away from the Strait of Hormuz. Volumes of crude oil and liquids transported through the Panama Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rose during the first quarter as producers utilized alternative shipping routes and buyers scrambling to replace Middle East supplies drove shipments in other parts of the world. However, the Hormuz strait's unique capacity—under normal conditions carrying roughly 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade—cannot be easily replaced by the limited throughput of alternative pipeline and shipping routes.
The impact on global energy markets has been swift and severe: Brent crude prices have surged more than 45% since the conflict began, topping $100 per barrel, while U.S. national retail gasoline prices have exceeded $4.50 per gallon, hovering near their highest levels since 2022. Reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank warn that if the regional conflict persists, oil prices could climb to $150 per barrel or higher. Asian economies—destination for 84% of oil transiting Hormuz—face the highest supply risk; countries including China, India, Japan, and South Korea are drawing down strategic reserves and securing emergency supply deals. Note: This summary draws on SupplyChainBrain's publicly visible headline + subhead + opening paragraph and on sector background on Strait of Hormuz oil flows.
Key Takeaways:
1. Crude oil and product flows through Strait of Hormuz fell by nearly 6 million barrels/day in Q1 2026, down to 14.6 million b/d (a 30% decline).
2. EIA's first Global Energy Security Dataset report documents post-conflict supply reconfiguration.
3. Crude volumes through Panama Canal and Bab el-Mandeb rose, but cannot fully replace Hormuz capacity.
4. Brent crude prices surged 45%+ since conflict outbreak, topping $100/bbl; U.S. gasoline exceeded $4.50/gallon.
5. Asian economies face highest supply risk; China, India, Japan, South Korea drawing strategic reserves.
