U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a two-day summit in Beijing on May 14–15, agreed that the Strait of Hormuz "must remain open to support the free flow of energy". A White House readout noted that Xi made clear China's opposition to militarization of the strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use, and expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China's dependence on the strait in the future. Yet as Trump departed Beijing aboard Air Force One, there was little evidence that the world's two most powerful nations had forged any agreement on how to end the war with Iran.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran and assassinated Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Pre-conflict, around 3,000 vessels used the strait each month; their numbers now stand at around 5% of that level. On May 4, Trump announced "Project Freedom" to guide stranded vessels; on May 6 he paused the effort, citing "great progress"—yet the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect.
Baker Hughes CFO Ahmed Moghal and Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said they are working under the assumption that the strait may not fully reopen until the second half of 2026. A Dallas Fed Energy survey found nearly 80% of oil and gas executives believe the strait will not reopen until August or later. According to Aramco, the market has already lost more than 1 billion barrels due to the Hormuz closure; the net loss is around 880 million barrels thanks to redirected exports through Aramco's east-west pipeline and government strategic-reserve releases. JPMorgan forecast oil inventories would fall to a critically low 6.8 billion barrels by September if Hormuz is still closed, while Rapidan Energy predicted product inventories could hit critical levels in July or August.
Before the U.S.–Israel war against Iran, the strait was open and about 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through it. The de facto closure of the vital waterway has caused the biggest oil supply disruption in history, dramatically raising oil and gas prices. Hundreds of ships and their crews remain stranded, with operators unwilling to risk crossings amid the tense marine standoff; about 2,000 vessels are waiting to be allowed through. The World Food Program (WFP) reported that since the war began and the strait largely closed, food prices across Central and Eastern Africa have increased by as much as 50%.
Industry figures told NBC News that operators are "likely to remain cautious until they see a more stable, predictable and sustained situation," and that while some companies willing to take risks will start moving vessels quickly once a deal is announced, it may take months, if not years, to return to prewar flow of traffic. With no firm resolution to reopen the strait, Brent oil futures rose 3%, above $108 a barrel.
Note: This summary draws on SupplyChainBrain's publicly visible headline + subhead + opening paragraph and on sector background on the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
Key Takeaways:
1. Trump and Xi agreed at the May 14–15 Beijing summit that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, but failed to reach a concrete deal to reopen the waterway.
2. Vessel traffic through the strait has fallen 95% since the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israel strikes, down to ~150 vessels/month; ~2,000 ships stranded in the Gulf.
3. Baker Hughes and Saudi Aramco assume the strait may not fully reopen until H2 2026; a Dallas Fed survey found ~80% of executives expect August or later.
4. Global oil inventories are falling at a record pace: JPMorgan forecasts a critically low 6.8 billion barrels by September if closure persists.
5. Brent oil futures rose above $108/barrel; the World Food Program reports the war has pushed food prices up to 50% higher across Africa.
