Amazon has announced Amazon Supply Chain Services (ASCS), opening its full portfolio of freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping capabilities to businesses of all types and sizes. The launch expands Amazon's third-party logistics (3PL) capacity to support industries including healthcare, automotive, manufacturing, and retail—not just Amazon sellers. Peter Larsen, Vice President of Amazon Supply Chain Services, stated, "Amazon is bringing the infrastructure, intelligence, and scale of its supply chain services to businesses everywhere, much like Amazon Web Services did for cloud computing."
However, the announcement has triggered a striking prediction from industry analyst Brittain Ladd on LinkedIn: "By 2030, 20% of the 3PLs operating today will be out of business." Talking Logistics editor Adrian Gonzalez notes this prediction isn't surprising—because Amazon's move isn't new. Amazon has offered fulfillment services to sellers on its platform since 2006. Headlines from 2015-2016 already suggested Amazon would rival UPS and FedEx. In 2019, Amazon launched freight brokerage services.
Going further back, in 2013, the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon had set up operations inside at least seven P&G warehouses worldwide. P&G loaded products like paper towels and diapers onto pallets and passed them to Amazon; Amazon employees then packaged and shipped items directly to customers. The same model was reportedly used with Seventh Generation, Kimberly Clark, and Georgia Pacific. That partnership had started three years earlier—meaning Amazon has been building this strategy for 16 years.
Gonzalez's takeaway is clear: Amazon has been pressuring 3PLs to "innovate or die" for more than a decade. While the ASCS launch is a notable development, if 20% of 3PLs go out of business by 2030, it won't be because of this week's announcement. It will be because—over the past decade or more—they failed to be bold and different, failed to innovate their business models, and failed to ask themselves: "What business are we truly in?" Amazon's move exposes a reality the sector has long ignored: 3PLs that don't innovate are already on a path to extinction.
Just as Amazon democratized cloud infrastructure with AWS, it now aims to democratize supply chain infrastructure. Ladd's prediction may sound bold, but given the sector's inertia over the past decade, the scenario is far from implausible.
Key Takeaways:
1. Amazon announced Amazon Supply Chain Services (ASCS), opening its full logistics capabilities to businesses of all sizes.
2. Industry analyst Brittain Ladd predicts 20% of the 3PL sector will close by 2030.
3. Amazon has offered fulfillment services since 2006 and entered freight brokerage in 2019; this move is the culmination of a 16-year strategy.
4. In 2013, Amazon set up packaging operations inside warehouses of P&G, Kimberly Clark, and other manufacturers.
5. Future 3PL failures will stem not from this week's launch, but from a decade of failing to innovate business models.
