Ryanair CEO O'Leary: European Airlines Will Fall One by One if Jet Fuel Stays Above $150; EU Rolls Out AccelerateEU
Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary, the head of Europe's largest low-cost airline, warned that surging jet fuel prices driven by the Middle East conflict and disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could push many European airlines toward bankruptcy. With Jet A-1 jumping from $80 to over $150 per barrel, O'Leary said: "If prices stay at these levels through July, August and September, you'll see European airlines fall one by one."
Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel needs, but rivals will face severe financial strain due to weak hedge positions. The IATA Jet Fuel Index jumped from $99.4 per barrel on Feb 27 to $209 on April 3 — a 110% rise. Northwest Europe CIF prices hit a record $216.9. By April 24, prices eased to $179.46 but remain far above pre-crisis levels.
Cuts have accelerated across the sector. Lufthansa dropped 20,000 short-haul flights through October. EasyJet reported a £25 million fuel bill in March and expects £540-560 million in first-half losses. SAS cancelled 1,000 flights; KLM cut 80 flights. Air France-KLM introduced a €100 fuel surcharge on long-haul flights.
Following IEA Director Fatih Birol's warning that "Europe could face a jet fuel shortage soon," the EU launched the AccelerateEU emergency plan. The plan tightens member-state coordination on filling gas storage, using oil stocks, national emergency measures, and securing jet fuel and diesel supplies. The EU faces roughly €24 billion in extra energy import costs since the war began on February 28.
Key Takeaways:
1. Ryanair CEO O'Leary: Jet A-1 jumped from $80 to over $150; European airlines face bankruptcy risk.
2. IATA Jet Fuel Index Feb 27 $99.4 → Apr 3 $209 (+110%); NW Europe CIF $216.9 record.
3. Lufthansa cut 20K flights, EasyJet £25M extra bill, SAS 1,000 cancellations, KLM 80, Air France-KLM €100/pax surcharge.
4. Ryanair has hedged 80% of fuel needs; rivals carry weak hedge positions.
5. EU rolled out AccelerateEU; ~€24B extra energy import cost since the Feb 28 war start.
[3623779]
