It has been quite the saga for the past two years: the development of loading volumes on the Russian rail network. Operator Russian Railways (RZD) informs the world each month about its figures. Apart from a brief recent hiatus, RZD has not seen positive numbers since early 2024.
Drivers of the decline include extensions of Western sanctions, capacity issues on the eastern corridors at the Kazakhstan-China border, the cancellation of Black Sea-Baltic rail connections, and the Russian economy's shift toward the military-industrial complex. In addition, the aging Russian wagon fleet and insufficient repair capacity became another flag throughout 2025. More than one tenth of wagons are out of service.
According to RZD data, coal, metal ore, and grain exports are expected to shift to different corridors. The Far East corridors (Vladivostok, Nakhodka) in particular are regaining importance for coal exports. However, the capacity of these corridors is limited, and alternative markets (India, Türkiye, UAE) are imposing price pressure. RZD has shared its expectation of leaving rock bottom behind by the first quarter of 2026, but most independent analysts remain cautious.
Key Takeaways:
1. RZD has not seen positive loading figures since early 2024.
2. The decline stems from sanctions, eastern corridor capacity, Black Sea-Baltic cancellations, and the military-economic shift.
3. The Russian wagon fleet has aged; more than one tenth of wagons are out of service.
4. Far East corridors (Vladivostok, Nakhodka) are regaining importance for coal exports.
5. RZD expects to leave rock bottom behind in Q1 2026 but independent analysts remain cautious.
