Empty Sailings Expected to Rise on Asia-NAWC Routes
Empty Sailings Expected to Rise on Asia-NAWC Routes
Sea-Intelligence is observing a sharp surge in capacity on the Asia – North America West Coast route during the 2025 Chinese New Year (CNY) period. Current capacity distribution has reached the highest level in the analyzed period, approaching approximately 1.34 million TEU. This figure surpasses even the high-demand period of 2021, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.3% and growth of 34.1% compared to the 2016-2019 period.
\nCarriers have planned capacity with a 90% rate for empty sailings. According to Sea-Intelligence, this rate is the lowest among the analyzed periods, creating a sharp contrast with the 22.8% reduction in 2024 and the 18.3% average for 2016-2019. Even in 2021, when the pandemic created a positive impact on demand, the empty sailing rate was higher at 10.7%.
\nSea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy notes that under normal circumstances, carriers would not tolerate capacity at this level, and significant empty sailing announcements could come in the coming weeks. This situation may be similar to capacity reductions implemented before CNY in 2023 and 2024. However, the deployment of new networks by MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance could lead carriers to plan less than usual empty sailings.
\nKey Points:
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During the 2025 CNY period, capacity on the Asia – North America West Coast route reached a record level of approximately 1.34 million TEU.
\n Empty sailing planning stands at 90%, showing a notable decline compared to previous years.
\n Carriers are not expected to tolerate excess capacity, and announcements of empty sailings could increase in the coming weeks.
\n The deployment of new networks by MSC, Gemini Cooperation, and Premier Alliance creates uncertainty in empty sailing planning.
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These developments underscore the need for careful monitoring of supply and demand balance in the maritime shipping sector and highlight the importance of carriers' strategic planning.
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\nNews Link: https://www.porttechnology.org/news/blank-sails-set-to-rise-on-asia-nawc-route/
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