Tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving a supply chain crisis far deeper than oil markets alone. The Middle East represents roughly $743.5 billion of the global petrochemical market, and the region is one of the world's largest production hubs supplying polymer resins to packaging manufacturers globally, particularly in Asia and Europe. Polyethylene and polypropylene prices have climbed to roughly four-year highs, driven by constrained supply and higher energy costs, with increases of more than 30% since late February 2026. The combined impact of material shortages and freight disruptions is collapsing flexible and rigid plastic formats critical for food, beverage, and personal care sectors.
Due to the primary impact from the Strait of Hormuz being on energy markets, the earliest pressure points are those most impacted downstream from oil and liquefied natural gas—in other words, packaging and petrochemical-based materials—hitting categories like beverage bottling, cold-chain products, dairy, protein, and processed foods first. The Middle East accounts for at least 20% of all seaborne fertilizer exports, and the dependency is even more acute for urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, with 46% of global trade originating from the region. Urea futures have surged more than 70% since last year, surpassing US$700 per tonne, and according to the UN, about 16 million tonnes of fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz per year. This sets the stage for severe constraints in future harvests.
War Risk Surcharges from Hapag-Lloyd, set at $1,500 per TEU as of March 2, 2026, add approximately $75 per tonne to the shipping cost of aluminum ingot—a meaningful increment in a market where margins are already thin. Aluminum, along with all energy-intensive packaging materials including materials used in flexible packaging converters and glass furnaces, face similar pressure. According to the United Nations, over 2,000 ships carrying food and energy inputs are impacted by the Hormuz Strait disruption. Asia faces particular supply challenges, with most of its seaborne naphtha—the primary raw material for plastic packaging production—coming from the Middle East, and many companies including Qatar Energy, Kuwait Petroleum, Shell, and Wanhua Chemical have declared "force majeure"—a legal mechanism that allows them to pause or reduce supply without penalty.
If the Strait of Hormuz were reopened today and all traffic allowed to flow freely, it would take 4-6 weeks for supply chains to "stabilise" and around 8-13 weeks for a return to "normal". Many manufacturers are planning for sustained high packaging costs through at least the second half of 2026, with pricing and availability closely tied to geopolitical developments and maritime security conditions in the region. Industry experts emphasize that companies must stabilize operations with frequent reviews of supplier status, lead times, and logistics constraints, and utilize AI-enabled advanced planning systems to reallocate and optimize inventory across their supply chains. Note: This summary draws on SupplyChainBrain's publicly visible headline + subhead + opening paragraph and on sector background on Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Key Takeaways:
1. Polyethylene and polypropylene prices climbed over 30% since late February 2026, reaching roughly four-year highs
2. Approximately 16 million tonnes of fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz annually; urea prices surged over 70%, surpassing $700/tonne
3. Hapag-Lloyd's War Risk Surcharge of $1,500 per TEU as of March 2, 2026, adds approximately $75/tonne to aluminum ingot shipping costs
4. Over 2,000 ships carrying food and energy inputs are impacted by disruption; companies including Qatar Energy, Kuwait Petroleum, and Shell declared force majeure
5. Even if the Strait reopens today, supply chain "stabilisation" takes 4-6 weeks, return to "normal" around 8-13 weeks
