The minor bulks panel at last month's Geneva Dry 2026 conference evolved into a broader debate on how shifting commodity flows, geopolitical disruption and tightening vessel supply are reshaping the geared dry bulk market. Moderated by Derek Langston, the panel brought together executives from South32, Cetus Maritime, Anglo American, Vale Base Metals and Asyad Shipping. The session focused on what is driving global minor bulk exports, the relatively modest orderbook for geared tonnage, and how owners, charterers and commodity producers are adapting fleet deployment strategies to cope with regional volatility and seasonal swings.
Robert Haggquist from South32 said tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainty had already changed trading behaviour over the past year, particularly through inventory building and strategic stockpiling. Haggquist noted that traders built up inventories in anticipation of tariffs and measures, creating additional volatility in the market and a disconnect between shipments and underlying consumption. He added that some governments were now building strategic inventories of key minor bulk commodities as a hedge against future disruption. Several panellists pointed to copper as one of the clearest long-term demand stories for geared bulkers.
Karim Coumine, head of commercial shipping – minor bulk at Anglo American, said demand growth tied to electrification, EVs and industrial development continued to underpin copper concentrate flows from South America into Asia. Coumine noted there was not significant new investment in copper supply at present, emphasizing that investing in a copper mine requires substantial capital and time to bring online. Eduardo Luz from Vale Base Metals said the industry still faced a substantial future supply gap despite strong growth plans. Luz highlighted a need for 10 million tonnes of refined copper in the market, noting that projects take considerable time to come online. Vale expects its Brazilian copper shipments to double to 2 million tonnes by 2035 as new projects ramp up.
The panel also examined how sulphur shortages and fertiliser trade disruption linked to tensions in the Middle East were feeding through into shipping demand and commodity pricing. Luz said sulphur prices had surged above $800 per tonne, sharply increasing nickel processing costs in Indonesia. Imad Al Khaduri from Asyad Shipping described Oman's growing role as a logistics and storage hub as cargoes increasingly bypassed disrupted Gulf routes. Al Khaduri noted that Oman has become a default gateway for many cargoes, with companies prioritizing keeping plants online over profitability.
Olivia Lennox-King, chief of operations at Cetus Maritime, argued that flexibility was becoming more important than scale alone. Lennox-King emphasized the need for extreme versatility in geared vessels, allowing owners to pivot when markets change. She noted that larger geared designs had steadily gained market share over the past decade, with ultramaxes increasingly viewed as the ultimate workhorse of the geared sector, but stressed hard limits imposed by ports and cargo characteristics. Lennox-King also pushed back on the idea that the geared fleet was severely underbuilt, noting that around 200 handysize vessels were due for delivery this year, while scrapping activity remained extremely limited despite the ageing fleet profile.
Key Takeaways:
1. Tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainty have altered trading behavior through inventory building, creating disconnect between shipments and consumption.
2. Copper demand is rising due to electrification and industrial development, with the sector facing a 10 million tonne supply gap by 2035.
3. Sulphur prices have surged above $800 per tonne, sharply increasing nickel processing costs in Indonesia.
4. Approximately 200 vessels are stuck in the Middle East due to disruptions, tightening global vessel supply significantly.
5. Port constraints and draft limitations remain primary barriers preventing further migration towards larger geared vessels.
