Sentiment in the multipurpose vessel (MPV) segment remains positive for 2026 despite bunker price volatility. Analysts and brokers note that shipper resistance to absorbing additional bunker costs may be eroded by a healthy breakbulk and project cargo pipeline. Renewable energy equipment, modular industrial plant components and large-scale infrastructure projects in particular are supporting MPV demand.
The bunker outlook is volatile but biased lower. According to Ship & Bunker's latest forecast, Rotterdam VLSFO is expected to average around $370/mt in 2026, with HSFO at $327/mt and MGO at $489/mt. The global VLSFO average is forecast to hold below $500/mt throughout 2026.
Bunker traders are concerned that geopolitical uncertainty over the past year has not generated enough price volatility to benefit their margins. At the start of 2026 the bunker industry faces weak margins, rising GHG-compliance costs, limited growth in alternative fuel markets and geopolitical risks — a picture of an uncertain year. EU ETS cost increases are expected to offset bunker price declines through 2026; large operators such as Wallenius Wilhelmsen have already lowered 2026 earnings guidance due to pressure on bunker and vessel capacity costs.
From a supply chain perspective the MPV market remains a critical transport mode supporting renewable energy, defence equipment and major infrastructure flows. Major operators — Hörlin, Spliethoff, BBC Chartering, Cosco SPL and Hansa Heavy Lift — are reporting cargo-use ratios above 85% in Q1 2026. Cobalt flows from the DRC to Europe, copper concentrate from Chile to Asia and defence systems from Türkiye to Saudi Arabia are keeping the pipeline full year-round.
Key Takeaways:
1. MPV sentiment for 2026 is positive despite bunker volatility.
2. Strong breakbulk and project cargo pipeline is eroding shipper resistance.
3. Rotterdam VLSFO 2026 average is forecast at ~$370/mt; HSFO $327, MGO $489.
4. EU ETS cost increases are expected to offset bunker price drops through 2026.
5. Operators like Spliethoff, BBC and Cosco SPL report 85%+ cargo utilisation in Q1 2026.
