Autonomous semi-trucks could be cheaper to operate than human-driven trucks as soon as 2028, as the technology gets less costly and more widely available. According to data released April 30 by Goldman Sachs, the upfront cost to equip a U.S. truck with autonomous technology currently ranges between $125,000 and $150,000. That figure is expected to fall to $30,000-$40,000 by 2030 and $20,000-$25,000 by 2035, a curve that signals a structural cost reduction in long-haul road freight across the North American continent.
Goldman estimates that the all-in cost per mile for an autonomous truck — including fuel, insurance, maintenance, financing and technology depreciation — will drop from an estimated $8.56 in 2025 to $2.03 by 2035. With human-driven per-mile cost in the $2.80-$3.20 band, the autonomous option will hit cost parity around 2028 and gain a clear advantage from the early 2030s onward. Aurora Innovation, Kodiak Robotics and Plus.ai are already running driverless Class 8 operations in Texas, and these projections provide the strongest economic case yet for taking those pilots to commercial scale.
For the supply chain, autonomous road freight is poised to become the first large-scale domain where AI's long-promised productivity gains materialise as a hard cost effect. Per-mile savings above $1.00 translate into roughly $100,000 per truck per year on a 100,000-mile annual route — pushing 3PLs, retail shippers and OEMs to reserve long-term contract capacity on autonomous lanes. This will compound pressure on driver shortages, on Hours-of-Service (FMCSA HOS / ELD) constraints and on driver base wages, while enabling the supply chain to redesign U.S. East-West corridors around 1,000+ continuous miles per day.
Key Takeaways:
1. Goldman Sachs forecasts autonomous-equipment cost falling from today's $125,000-$150,000 to $30,000-$40,000 by 2030.
2. All-in per-mile cost is projected to drop from $8.56 in 2025 to $2.03 in 2035, hitting parity with human drivers around 2028.
3. Aurora, Kodiak and Plus.ai are already running commercial driverless Class 8 operations in Texas.
4. Savings above $100,000 per truck per year on 100,000-mile routes will push 3PLs and retail shippers toward autonomous lane capacity.
5. Driver shortages, FMCSA HOS rules and driver base wages will face structural pressure as autonomous deployment scales.
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