The U.S. trucking freight market showed some long-awaited signs of life in the fourth quarter of 2025, with shipper spending climbing to its highest level since early 2024. According to data published by U.S. Bank on February 3, national trucking shipment volumes rose 1.5% from the previous quarter to close out the year, while shipper spending increased 5.2% year-over-year and 4.6% from the third quarter.
However, national shipments were still down by nearly 5% compared to Q4 of 2024, as industry capacity contracted, consumer spending continued to fluctuate and freight demand remained muted. "The capacity story is the defining theme of Q4," said U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics Bobby Holland. "Shippers paid significantly more to move slightly more freight — clear evidence that available truck capacity continues to tighten."
The good news for carriers is that while trucking volumes have remained soft, the pace of decline is easing. Although national shipment volumes declined year-over-year for the 15th straight quarter in Q4 2025, that was also the smallest quarterly drop since Q2 of 2022. For 2025 as a whole, freight volumes declined 9.9% from 2024 — less than half the 20.4% annual decline recorded the year before.
The increase in shipper spending also marked the first year-over-year bump in three years, underscoring how tightening capacity has been driving rates higher across the trucking market. U.S. Bank noted that the spending gains are unlikely to be the result of higher fuel costs — a common culprit when freight prices increase — with analysts pointing instead to capacity contraction as the primary driver of rising rates. From a supply chain perspective, this cycle suggests that large shippers including Walmart and Amazon will be forced to renegotiate carrier rate models heading into 2026.
