Shipping companies remain reluctant to transit the Strait of Hormuz, despite guarantees from President Donald Trump that the U.S. Navy would guide trapped ships out of the waterway. Trump first announced what he dubbed 'Project Freedom' on May 3, billing it as an initiative to have the U.S. escort ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blockaded by both Iran and the U.S. However, Trump provided few specifics regarding the scope of the plan, or even how exactly it would work in practice — leaving shipping companies skeptical of its viability.
'It is unclear whether Project Freedom is sustainable in the longer run or whether it will be a limited operation to get some of the trapped ships out,' BIMCO chief safety and security officer Jakob Larsen said in a May 4 statement. Larsen reiterated that no formalized details or guidance have been offered to the shipping industry from the Trump administration, and that without coordination with Iran's military, 'there is a risk of hostilities breaking out again' if Project Freedom proceeds. Other shipping companies shared similar opinions: ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd told The New York Times that Trump's assurances had not changed their operational risk-reward calculus; Maersk and MSC have publicly maintained their suspension of Hormuz transits.
From a supply chain perspective, container lines' reservations are reshaping global flows along the Hormuz axis through three core risks. First, P&I insurance premiums: war risk premiums in the Lloyd's of London market have risen 15-20-fold for Hormuz transits since November 2025; a single China-Gibraltar voyage now incurs an additional $500K-$1M premium per transit. Second, cross alternatives: Hapag-Lloyd and MSC are now moving upper Persian Gulf cargo via Sharjah / Khor Fakkan through feeder services — effectively the new standard for strait-bypass routing. Third, BIMCO's escalation warning is critical: unilateral operations without an established U.S.-Iran coordination channel raise the military escalation risk — pushing carriers from standard route compliance toward company-by-company risk assessment, ushering in a phase of fragmented individual decisions rather than a unified supply-chain response.
Key Takeaways:
1. Container lines remain reluctant to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite Trump's Project Freedom assurances.
2. BIMCO chief safety officer Jakob Larsen said it's unclear whether the plan is sustainable in the longer run or merely a limited evacuation operation.
3. Hapag-Lloyd told the New York Times Trump's assurances did not change their operational risk-reward calculus; Maersk and MSC continue suspending Hormuz transits.
4. BIMCO warned that unilateral operations without coordination with Iran's military raise the risk of military escalation.
5. Container lines have shifted from standard route compliance to company-by-company risk assessment; Sharjah / Khor Fakkan feeder bypass is becoming the new standard.
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