The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut to international shipping as the double blow of Iranian and U.S. blockades leaves the key energy corridor largely dormant. Tensions escalated last week when Iranian gunboats fired on ships and U.S. forces seized two oil tankers.
According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, three Iran-linked vessels exited the Persian Gulf through Hormuz on the morning of April 27, with no incoming traffic observed. Two bulk carriers and an LPG tanker with ties to Tehran departed the Gulf. April 26 was even quieter — exits were limited to an Iran-linked fuel tanker and a bulk carrier, while only a China-linked fuel tanker entered the Gulf.
As the Middle East war enters its ninth week, vast supplies of crude and fuels remain choked off. Oil is trading above $100 a barrel with peace talks stalled. Vessels broadcasting AIS signals are confined to a narrow northern lane near the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, a route approved by Tehran.
The U.S. blockade may push Iran-linked ships to switch off transponders to avoid detection, distorting the traffic picture. Iranian tankers commonly steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca, about 13 days from Kharg Island. Analysts compile signal histories across the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea and Red Sea to identify potential transits.
Without signals, the risk of spoofing — falsifying a ship's apparent position — also rises. Iranian tankers leaving Hormuz often only reappear in Malacca, about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other operators may be adopting similar tactics, meaning transit figures could be revised higher when vessels reappear.
Key Takeaways:
1. Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual Iran-US blockade.
2. Only three Iran-linked vessels exited the Gulf on April 27; no inbound traffic observed.
3. Oil trades above $100/barrel as peace talks remain stalled.
4. Active-AIS transits are confined to a narrow northern lane near Larak and Qeshm.
5. Tankers are switching off transponders until reaching Malacca; spoofing risk is rising.
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