Maritime consultancy Drewry has cut its global container port throughput growth forecast from 2.2% in February to 1.8%. Industry executives and analysts said the Middle East war is likely to trigger blank sailings, service cancellations and routing changes in container shipping in the coming months.
In the longer term, potential oil shortages could significantly affect global manufacturing and curtail container volumes. The conflict could also spur increased spending on Middle East port and landside infrastructure as investors seek alternative transport solutions that avoid areas — including the Strait of Hormuz — closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities.
Speaking on a pair of JOC-hosted webinars, executives examined the potential consequences of the US-Israel war with Iran. In the short term, carriers are expected to deploy blank sailings for capacity management; in the medium term, rising bunker fuel prices are expected to pass through to freight rates.
Key Takeaways:
1. Drewry cut its container port growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.8%.
2. Blank sailings, service cancellations and rerouting are expected near-term.
3. A long-term oil shortage could hit manufacturing and container volumes.
4. Middle East port infrastructure investment is likely to rise.
5. Rising bunker fuel prices are expected to flow into freight rates.
