SupplyChainBrain reports that the Port of Los Angeles does not expect a significant surge in cargo following the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China — though it does anticipate volumes from China to move higher. During a May 19 briefing, Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, stated that he expects vessel volumes to remain well below what the port experienced during the pandemic peak — while also forecasting lower inventory across "various retail sectors" and for parts supply to U.S. factories. "This leaves us with fewer product selections and presumably higher prices," he said. "For now, uncertainty persists in every business meeting I have — and finding the best decisions possible for companies remains difficult." Seroka also confirmed that many U.S. companies have begun resuming shipments from China after pausing orders prior to the Trump administration's announcement of the tariff pause in early May. However, the sudden surge in demand for cargo space has driven an increase in shipping rates — pushing retailers and manufacturers to "plan carefully."
From a supply chain perspective, the Port of Los Angeles (POLA), based in San Pedro, California, U.S., with Gene Seroka as Executive Director since 2014, is the largest container port in the U.S., handling 8.6 million TEU annually in 2023, and serves as the primary U.S. gateway for over 40% of Asia-Pacific container traffic. The Port of Long Beach (POLB; Mario Cordero CEO), located adjacent to POLA in San Pedro Bay, handled 8.0 million TEU annually in 2023. Together, the two ports handle 35-40% of all U.S. container traffic — serving as the primary axis for Asia-Pacific connectivity. POLA's principal carrier partners include MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping, ONE (Ocean Network Express), Hapag-Lloyd, Evergreen, Yang Ming, HMM, and Wan Hai. POLA's major terminals are operated by APM Terminals Pier 400, Yusen Terminals, Fenix Marine Services, TraPac, and Everport Terminal Services.
From a supply chain perspective, the U.S.-China tariff war timeline includes: (1) February 2025, Trump imposes 10% tariffs on China; (2) March 2025, increases to 20%; (3) April 2025, escalates to 145% as reciprocal tariffs — with China responding at 125%; (4) May 2025, following negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland, a 90-day pause — with the U.S. reducing tariffs from 145% to 30% and China cutting from 125% to 10%; (5) additional negotiations in London, UK in June 2025. The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR; Jamieson Greer), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick form the principal U.S. negotiating team. On the China side, He Lifeng (Vice Premier) and Wang Wentao (Ministry of Commerce) are the lead negotiating officials. POLA volume trends show May 2025 volumes down 10% year-over-year — declining from months exceeding 1 million TEU before tariffs to 750,000-800,000 TEU afterward. The National Retail Federation (NRF; Matt Shay CEO) Global Port Tracker (in partnership with Hackett Associates) forecasts U.S. imports could decline 15-25% year-over-year in the second half of 2025.
From a supply chain perspective, container freight rates — tracked by the Drewry World Container Index for Asia-U.S. West Coast 40-foot containers — have risen to $4,500-$5,500 in May 2025 following the sudden demand surge after the tariff pause — below pandemic peaks ($12,000+) but well above normal levels ($1,500-$2,500). The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), Baltic Exchange, and Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) are primary price indices. Asia-Pacific carrier alliances include 2M (Maersk + MSC; dissolving in 2025), Gemini Cooperation (Maersk + Hapag-Lloyd; February 2025), Premier Alliance (ONE + HMM + Yang Ming), and Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM + COSCO + OOCL + Evergreen). In conclusion, Seroka's assessment of uncertainty suggests that globally, the U.S.-China trade war and Trans-Pacific container trade remain fundamentally unstable — with tariff buffer stock and flexible planning appearing to be primary strategic priorities for supply chain managers.
Key Takeaways:
1. Gene Seroka (POLA) does not expect significant growth following the 90-day tariff pause.
2. Trump reduces tariffs on China from 145% to 30% for the interim period.
3. U.S. companies are resuming orders — shipping rates are increasing.
4. NRF Global Port Tracker forecasts 15-25% import decline in H2 2025.
5. POLA is the largest U.S. container port — volumes remain below pandemic peaks.
