Malaysia's exports grew more slowly than expected in November — reflecting the weight that higher tariffs are placing on the Southeast Asian nation's trade with the U.S. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, exports rose 7% year-on-year in November — falling short of the median estimate of 11.6% in Bloomberg surveys. Shipments to the U.S., one of Malaysia's largest trading partners, fell 0.9% and posted declines for a second consecutive month. Imports accelerated 15.8% year-on-year — effectively cutting the country's trade surplus in half in November to 6.1 billion ringgit ($1.5 billion). From a supply chain perspective, Malaysia is ASEAN's third-largest economy — after Indonesia and Thailand. Singapore, the U.S., China, Japan, Hong Kong, Thailand, India, South Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan are Malaysia's principal trading partners.
The U.S., which accounts for 11% of Malaysia's total trade, is imposing a 19% tariff on the Southeast Asian nation's goods — effective from August. Yet Malaysia's electrical and electronic product exports are up 15% year-on-year — holding firm amid expectations that the U.S. will soon tax semiconductors. Strong exports to China also help offset the decline in shipments to the U.S. — while exports to Taiwan have reached record levels. From a supply chain perspective, Penang, Selangor, Kulim, and Johor are Malaysia's electronics manufacturing hubs. Intel, Texas Instruments, AMD, Infineon, Bosch, STMicroelectronics, Renesas, Western Digital, Micron, Lam Research, Applied Materials, Inari Amertron, Globetronics, VS Industry, Pentamaster, ViTrox, and MMS Ventures are major electronics manufacturers in Malaysia. OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) services represent the main activity in Malaysia's role in the global semiconductor supply chain — representing 13% of global OSAT capacity.
"It is still good performance for us, as we are seeing," said Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd. "The impact of higher U.S. tariffs will need to be more granular in 2026," he added, expecting more moderation in exports to the U.S. as higher tariffs reduce demand. From a supply chain perspective, the Trump 2.0 tariff regime applies regionally differentiated tariffs to ASEAN countries under a reciprocal tariff mechanism. Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and the Philippines are affected at varying rates. Vietnam, one of the leading beneficiaries of the China+1 strategy, is among the hardest hit with a 46% tariff. Malaysia's 19% rate remains relatively moderate. A Section 232 semiconductor investigation forms the basis for potential chip tariffs the U.S. will apply going forward. The CHIPS and Science Act, Intel Foundry, TSMC Arizona, Samsung Texas, and Micron New York are the major investments in U.S. chip localization.
From a supply chain perspective, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) manages monetary policy as the country's central bank. The Malaysian ringgit (MYR) and USD/MYR parity are critical for exporter margins. Palm oil, petroleum, LNG, rubber, tin, and tropical wood are Malaysia's main export items outside electronics. Sime Darby Plantation, FGV Holdings, IOI Corporation, and Petronas are Malaysia companies operating at global scale. Port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas, Penang Port, and Bintulu are Malaysia's principal ports. Tanjung Pelepas ranks among the world's top 20 container ports. RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), CPTPP, and the potential MEUSFTA form Malaysia's active trade agreement portfolio. The JS-SEZ (Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone) is being signed in 2025 — promoting cross-border investment. In summary, Malaysia's November export data serves as concrete evidence of the granular impact of U.S. tariffs on ASEAN economies.
Key Points:
1. Malaysia's exports grew 7% in November — falling short of the 11.6% expectation.
2. Shipments to the U.S. fell 0.9% and mark a second consecutive month of decline.
3. The U.S. is imposing a 19% tariff — effective from August.
4. Electronics exports are growing 15%; exports to China and Taiwan are offsetting factors.
5. Mohd Afzanizam expects the impact to be more granular in 2026.
