Maersk has warned that as container shipping gradually returns to the Red Sea, over-capacity in the ocean carrier market will intensify, driving down freight rates in the coming months and potentially cutting 2026 earnings in half. The statement underscores the supply shock that will hit the market as the global container shipping industry reverses the capacity it has been routing around the Cape of Good Hope over the past two years. Maersk, as one of the sector's largest players, is prompting other liner operators to restructure their contract pricing strategies for the next two quarters. From a supply chain perspective, this warning serves as a trigger pulling forward contract renewal cycles on the shipper side.
According to Reuters, Maersk has reduced its base EBITDA guidance for this year to a range of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. This level sits significantly below the company's 2025 EBITDA of $9.53 billion. Should the forecast materialize, as reported by the Financial Times, the result would represent the company's first operating loss in the past decade. The resumption of commercial shipping through the Red Sea stands as the most critical variable weighing on the 2026 outlook for both Maersk and its competitors. While the reopening of this vital trade route is generally seen as positive for the shipping sector, it is emphasized that it comes with unwanted side effects.
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc stated on February 5 during a press briefing: "New ships are coming in, and at the same time, shipping through the Red Sea is likely to reopen, which will free up ship capacity," and further stressed the pricing pressure this year with the words: "All of this will put pressure on freight rates this year." Clerc forecasts that the Red Sea's return to service will free up 6-7 percent of global container shipping capacity in 2026. When combined with this additional capacity and a strong orderbook of new ships coming into service, the container market is expected to face significant oversupply, straining the finances of the world's largest carriers. In response to this pressure, Maersk plans to reduce its share buyback program and eliminate 1,000 administrative positions.
The situation in the Red Sea region remains unstable. In late January, Houthi insurgents threatened to resume attacks in the region amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Despite these threats, Maersk is proceeding with steps to restart routes through the region, aiming by mid-February to reestablish the ME11 line—which connects India and the Middle East to Europe—via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. From a supply chain perspective, this move delivers 10-14 days in transit time savings, significant fuel cost reductions, and an opportunity to renegotiate WAR risk insurance premiums. As a result, Maersk's 2026 outlook signals the beginning of a new competitive cycle in container shipping.
Key Points:
1. Maersk is lowering its 2026 EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.5-7 billion.
2. 2025 EBITDA was $9.53 billion; the decline marks the first operating loss in a decade.
3. The opening of the Red Sea is expected to free up 6-7 percent of global capacity.
4. Maersk is cutting share buybacks and plans to eliminate 1,000 administrative positions.
5. The ME11 line is planned to resume operations via the Suez Canal by mid-February.
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