Analyst Insight: Ocean logistics will enter 2026 facing a soft first half. Tariffs continue to depress U.S.-bound import demand, leaving carriers with excess capacity and shippers with unusual pricing leverage. As the market adjusts, the advantage shifts to organizations that treat this period as a recalibration window, tightening cost structures, rebalancing networks and preparing for a modest volume recovery in the back half of 2026.
Regardless of trade agreements or Supreme Court decisions, the first half of 2026 will be soft. Marine logistics continues to absorb the momentum of uncertainty from the past two years, weighing on volumes. Ocean carriers have moved from a position of dominance to one defined by excess capacity and uneven demand, with the global container fleet projected to grow by 8% in 2025 while demand stays stagnant at 3%. Contract rates, and even spot rates, are under pressure.
It is reasonable to expect a modest 1% to 4% volume lift in the back half of 2026, but it will still be a shippers' market. The combination of weakened demand, ongoing tariff anxiety and persistent overcapacity gives shippers an unusual degree of bargaining power and flexibility. Many will secure highly favorable rates for 2026 and reshape their ocean strategies with less margin pressure. For U.S. importers, the desire for clarity, especially final resolution on Trump-era tariffs and a stabilizing trade framework with China, remains the central concern.
For carriers, the next 18 months will be defined by rate compression and overcapacity risk. The pendulum has swung decisively away from the pandemic peak, with soft trades, flat demand and extensive newbuild commitments creating tight margins. From a supply chain perspective, in contract negotiations with Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and ZIM, shippers are well positioned to keep NAC (Named Account Contracts) volume commitments flexible, lower MQC (Minimum Quantity Commitment) levels and tie BAF, EBAF and PSS surcharges to a contract baseline.
