Bloomberg reports that the number of shipping containers carrying U.S. imports declined for a second consecutive month — a key indicator — as President Donald Trump's tariffs disrupt overseas goods purchases, putting the economic metric on track for one of the sharpest annual reversals on record. Veteran industry analyst John McCown wrote in a monthly report based on the 10 largest U.S. ports on July 20 that inbound container volume in June fell 7.9% compared to the prior year — following a 6.6% decline in May. The declines have completely erased the roughly 10% increase linked to inventory front-loading in April — and left the second quarter 1.8% lower compared to the prior year. "The downward turn in 2025 will depend on tariffs — and there is currently nothing to suggest that it will be short-lived," McCown wrote. After last year's 15% gain, "it is now most likely that there will generally be a decline in 2025."
From a supply chain perspective, U.S. container imports represent the single largest demand source for global supply chains — with over 25 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in annual imports — over 40% from China; 15% from Vietnam; 8% from India; 5% from South Korea; 4% from Japan; 4% from Germany; 3% from Taiwan; 3% from Indonesia; 3% from Thailand — the leading export sources. The U.S.'s 10 largest container ports are Port of Los Angeles (1); Port of Long Beach (2) — these two in San Pedro Bay — with over 18 million TEU annually; Port of New York-New Jersey (3); Port of Savannah (4); Port of Houston (5); Northwest Seaport Alliance (Tacoma+Seattle; 6); Port of Virginia (7); Port of Charleston (8); Port of Oakland (9); Port of Baltimore (10). John McCown of Blue Alpha Capital is the most respected independent analyst for U.S. maritime sector analysis — producing the monthly U.S. Top 10 Port Container Volume Report. The National Retail Federation (NRF), Hackett Associates, and the Global Port Tracker report also publish similar monthly container volume analysis.
From a supply chain perspective, the global container shipping sector comprises MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company; Geneva, Switzerland; the world's largest, with 6.5+ million TEU capacity); Maersk (A.P. Moller-Maersk; Copenhagen, Denmark; 4.4 million TEU); CMA CGM (Marseille, France; 3.7 million TEU); COSCO Shipping (Shanghai, China; 3.2 million TEU); Hapag-Lloyd (Hamburg, Germany; 2.3 million TEU); Evergreen Marine (Taoyuan, Taiwan; 1.7 million TEU); ONE (Ocean Network Express; Singapore; 1.9 million TEU); HMM (formerly Hyundai Merchant Marine; Seoul, Korea; 0.9 million TEU); Yang Ming Marine Transport (Keelung, Taiwan; 0.7 million TEU); ZIM Integrated Shipping (Haifa, Israel; 0.7 million TEU); Wan Hai Lines; PIL (Pacific International Lines) — the major operators. Gemini Cooperation (Maersk+Hapag-Lloyd); Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM+COSCO+Evergreen); Premier Alliance (ONE+HMM+Yang Ming) are the major vessel alliances post-2025.
From a supply chain perspective, the primary drivers of the 2025 container volume decline are: (1) Trump 2.0 tariffs (Liberation Day; April 2, 2025) with import rates from China reaching 145%+; (2) elimination of the de minimis exemption (shipments under $800) for China (Shein, Temu, AliExpress impact); (3) front-loading, the piling of orders ahead of tariffs followed by a downturn; (4) declining consumer confidence; (5) USTR Section 301 shipping rate threats; (6) FMC (Federal Maritime Commission) and P&I Club uncertainties; (7) Red Sea/Suez Canal routing tensions; (8) shifting to alternative suppliers ahead of the holiday season (Vietnam, Mexico, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia rotation). Drewry World Container Index; Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI); China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI); Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) are the primary spot container freight rate indices. In conclusion, John McCown's Blue Alpha Capital monthly report crystallizes the direct and long-term impact of the U.S. economy's structural adjustment to the tariff regime on global maritime traffic — the second half of 2025 appears likely to be challenging for global carriers in terms of capacity and pricing.
Key Points:
1. U.S. inbound container volume in June 2025 declines 7.9% on a year-over-year basis.
2. John McCown publishes a monthly report based on the 10 largest U.S. ports.
3. Q2 2025 is 1.8% lower compared to the prior year.
4. The 10% increase in front-loading in April has been erased by May-June declines.
5. Trump 2.0 tariffs are the primary volume decline driver.
