Two Major Uncertainties for 2026: US Restocking Wave and Return to the Red Sea
Two Major Uncertainties for 2026: US Restocking Wave and Return to the Red Sea
As the global container shipping sector approaches 2026, industry experts are focusing on two major unknowns: a potential restocking wave in the United States and the timing of a return to the Red Sea–Suez Canal route. These two dynamics will be decisive across the entire global network, from capacity management to freight rates.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen stated in an online panel discussion that US retail and industrial inventories are at historically low levels, meaning a possible "restocking sprint" could push 2026 demand into turbo mode.
1. US Restocking Wave: Can Suddenly Spike Demand
Prolonged weak inventory levels in the US signal that a widespread replenishment process may be at the door.
According to experts:
If restocking begins, Trans-Pacific demand could suddenly surge,
Freight rates would rise rapidly,
Pressure on vessels and container equipment would increase,
West Coast–East Coast cargo balances would shift.
According to Habben Jansen, this impact could be "very large and sudden," since throughout 2025 many US companies delayed inventory purchases due to high tariffs.
2. Return to Red Sea–Suez Route: Could Upend Global Traffic Flow
The second major uncertainty highlighted in the panel is when carriers will return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal.
While the ceasefire with the Houthi group has brought temporary relief, major lines remain cautious.
Habben Jansen:
Hapag-Lloyd has a ready "return plan" in place,
But is not yet planning to begin transits,
The route will not open until security, insurance costs, and stability become permanent.
If lines collectively return to Suez:
Serious congestion could develop at European and Mediterranean ports,
Transhipment pressures increase at Middle East and South Asian ports,
Lines serving the US East Coast (EC) could experience schedule disruptions,
Ship routes operating via the Cape of Good Hope would be redistributed and global schedule stability would decline.
Experts note that the entire fleet shifting to Suez at once could create congestion "approaching 2021–Ever Given levels".
3. If Both Uncertainties Converge: 2026 Could Be Highly Volatile
If US restocking and Suez return occur together:
Cargo volumes could rise to 15–25% higher than normal levels,
European hinterland capacity would quickly become locked up,
Queues would extend at Asian loading ports,
Trans-Pacific costs would surge sharply,
Global freight rates would again become highly volatile.
Furthermore, since the global container ship fleet will continue to grow in 2026, the supply–demand balance could be highly variable.
4. Hapag-Lloyd: "Our Plan Is Ready, but We're in No Rush"
Habben Jansen said Hapag-Lloyd has a ready operational manual "sitting on the shelf" for a Suez return.
However, the company will not make the transition until conditions mature.
He also noted that 2026 priorities will be:
Efficiency in the Gemini Cooperation network,
Schedule reliability,
Fuel optimization
Key Takeaways:
Two major unknowns for 2026: US restocking and return to Suez.
If restocking occurs, Trans-Pacific demand and freight rates could suddenly spike.
A Suez return could create serious congestion at European, Asian, and East Coast ports.
Hapag-Lloyd says it has a ready plan for the return but will not move until security becomes clear.
If both uncertainties materialize, 2026 could be extremely volatile.
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Author: SedatOnat.com
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