Erdoğan in Astana at Türkiye-Kazakhstan Business Forum — 'Our Target Is $15 Billion', 13 Documents Signed, Electronic Permits / Permit Quotas / Transit Liberalisation on the Table (Tokayev)
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the Türkiye-Kazakhstan Business Forum that bilateral trade has reached $10 billion, adding, "We are determinedly continuing our efforts to reach our target of $15 billion in a sustainable and balanced way." Speaking in Astana on the occasion of the sixth meeting of the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, Erdoğan said that in morning talks he had signed 13 different documents with President Tokayev to strengthen bilateral cooperation, and that a reciprocal investment protection and promotion agreement had also been signed today. He highlighted that in 2025 Kazakhstan posted 6.5% GDP growth, that per-capita national income approached $15,000, and that with a foreign-trade volume of $145 billion Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia's largest economy; he also noted that in 2025 Kazakhstan was the partner Türkiye traded with the most across the Turkic world.
Erdoğan shared concrete figures on Turkish presence in Kazakhstan: around 5,500 Turkish companies are operating with investments reaching $6 billion across construction, finance, tourism and IT. Turkish contractors have undertaken more than 500 projects worth $30 billion. In return, more than 750 Kazakh firms are operating in Türkiye with investments approaching $2 billion. He underlined that the comprehensive action plan adopted at last month's Joint Economic Commission meeting in Astana and today's investment agreement will give fresh impetus to trade and investment ties. Four technical headings that would positively affect trade were addressed at the talks: a shift to an electronic-permit system, an increase in road-transport permit quotas, the liberalisation of bilateral transport, and the liberalisation of transit transport. Erdoğan drew attention to multidimensional challenges from regional conflicts, energy security of supply, the AI transition and breakages in supply chains; he reminded that the following day the Organization of Turkic States informal summit would take place in Türkistan, the home town of Hodja Ahmet Yesevi, with the main theme of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development. On the energy front, he said that opportunities for cooperation across a wide spectrum — from hydrocarbon operation and transportation to the exploration of critical minerals — had been discussed.
From a supply chain perspective, this statement is critical along four axes. First, the combination of the $15 billion trade target with the package of electronic permits + transport quota increases + liberalisation of bilateral/transit transport offers Türkiye an opportunity to scale, against the backdrop of the Hormuz/Suez crises, the Middle Corridor (TITR — Trans-Caspian International Transport Route)-borne China-Europe transit capacity through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway + Aktau/Kuryk ports + the Caspian crossing + the Marmaray rail tunnel + the Çorlu-Halkalı line. Second, the 500+ Turkish contractor projects worth $30 billion and the 5,500 companies + $6 billion of Turkish investment position Kazakhstan as the third-largest external market for Turkish contractors after the UAE and Saudi Arabia; it creates an operational reference value against Chinese/Korean competitors competing with Ronesans, Limak, Yapı Merkezi and Astaldi. Third, the convening of the Organization of Turkic States Türkistan summit around the Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development axis opens the potential to integrate the Astana Hub + Astana IT University + ASBİS ecosystem with Türkiye's BİLGE Hub + TÜBİTAK BİLGEM + ASELSAN-HAVELSAN defence-software axis within the Turkic world under a sovereign AI silicon-data category. Fourth, the critical minerals and hydrocarbon cooperation heading offers a basis for combining Kazakhstan's portfolio of uranium (KazAtomProm, the world's number one), chrome, cobalt, lithium and rare earth elements (REE) with Türkiye's Eti Maden + ETİ Bakır + Cengiz Mining axis within a strategy to reduce dependence on Chinese REE; BOTAŞ + Eti Maden joint ventures are the most likely concrete short-to-medium-term output on this table.
Key Takeaways:
1. President Erdoğan reiterated the $15 billion trade target at the Türkiye-Kazakhstan Business Forum; the current bilateral trade volume is $10 billion.
2. In the morning meeting with President Tokayev, 13 documents were signed, and a reciprocal investment protection and promotion agreement was also signed.
3. A shift to an electronic-permit system, an increase in road-transport permit quotas and the liberalisation of bilateral/transit transport were placed on the table.
4. Around 5,500 Turkish companies operate in Kazakhstan with $6 billion in investment; Turkish contractors have undertaken more than 500 projects worth $30 billion; over 750 Kazakh firms operate in Türkiye with investments approaching $2 billion.
5. Kazakhstan grew 6.5% in 2025; per-capita national income approached $15,000; foreign-trade volume reached $145 billion.
6. The main theme of the Organization of Turkic States informal summit in Türkistan was set as Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development; under the energy heading, the operation/transportation of hydrocarbons and critical minerals were discussed.
7. Supply chain impact: scaling of the Middle Corridor (TITR) via BTK + Aktau/Kuryk + Caspian crossing + Marmaray + the third-largest external market for Turkish contractors (after the UAE/Saudi Arabia) + integration of Turkic-world AI (Astana Hub + BİLGEM/ASELSAN) + critical minerals (KazAtomProm uranium + REE/lithium/cobalt) — reducing dependence on China via joint ventures (BOTAŞ + Eti Maden).
