A new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study published in The Lancet Oncology reveals that annual new breast cancer cases, which stood at 2.3 million in 2023, are projected to rise by one-third to exceed 3.5 million by 2050. Similarly, yearly deaths are expected to surge 44% from around 764,000 to 1.4 million, with disproportionate impact in countries with limited resources. The study draws on population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, and interview data from 204 countries and territories over 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050.
In 2023, an estimated 2.3 million new breast cancers were diagnosed worldwide (73% in high- and upper-middle-income countries) and 764,000 deaths occurred (39% in low- and lower-middle-income countries). In high-income countries, decades of investment in screening, early detection and treatment drove a nearly 30% decline in breast cancer mortality between 1990 and 2023. But in the world's lowest-income countries, the trend moves in the opposite direction: deaths from breast cancer have nearly doubled over the same period. Women in low- and lower-middle-income countries account for 27% of new cases globally, yet contribute to more than 45% of all ill-health and early deaths from breast cancer worldwide (nearly 11 million years of healthy life lost).
Researchers found that more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden is linked to six modifiable risk factors: high red meat consumption is the biggest contributor at nearly 11%, followed by tobacco use at 8%, high blood sugar at 6%, high body mass index at 4%, and alcohol consumption and physical inactivity at 2% each. Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global breast cancer burden linked to high alcohol use and tobacco between 1990 and 2023, which declined by 47% and 28%, respectively, while the breast cancer burden linked to other risk factors did not indicate the same progress. Dr. Marie Ng (IHME and National University of Singapore) said: "With more than a quarter of the global breast cancer burden linked to six modifiable lifestyle changes there are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation. Targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible, while working with individuals to take action to reduce obesity and high blood sugar, is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide."
Lead author Kayleigh Bhangdia (University of Washington, IHME) said "Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women's lives and communities." "While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care, and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women's health." The study underscores the need for a comprehensive global response, including stronger prevention policies, greater investment in cancer care infrastructure in low-resource settings, and universal health coverage that includes breast cancer essentials.
Note: This summary draws on IHME's publicly visible headline + subhead + opening paragraph and on sector background on breast cancer epidemiology.
Key Takeaways:
1. In 2023, 2.3 million new breast cancer cases and 764,000 deaths were recorded globally; by 2050, figures are expected to reach 3.5 million and 1.4 million respectively.
2. Mortality rates in high-income countries fell 30% from 1990 to 2023, while nearly doubling in the world's lowest-income countries over the same period.
3. Six modifiable risk factors (red meat 11%, tobacco 8%, high blood sugar 6%, high BMI 4%, alcohol and inactivity 2% each) account for 28% of the global burden.
4. Analysis spanning 204 countries and territories from 1990–2023 shows fastest case growth in low-income countries, where lack of health infrastructure drives higher death rates.
5. Investment in early detection, treatment infrastructure, and prevention policies is critical for health systems to manage the cancer burden.
