Fertilizer shortages caused by the Iran war will have a 'dramatic' impact on food prices globally next year, and have already driven up costs for U.K. farmers by as much as 70%, according to one of the U.K.'s most powerful property and farming companies. The Guardian reports that Mark Preston, executive trustee of the 349-year-old Grosvenor Group — controlled by the Duke of Westminster — said fertilizer 'was already quite expensive' before the 50% to 70% surge in prices after the war began. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has throttled global supplies of fertilizer, as well as oil. So far, the effect on consumers has been mostly felt as high prices at the gas pump, but global food supply chains — from seed to grocery shelf — tend to have longer lags.
On May 7, John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), warned during an interview with Forbes TV that the fertilizer shortage could cause 'deadly food scarcity and price hikes.' In April, a statement by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) said that around 70% of U.S. farmers reported being unable to afford all the fertilizer they need. The AFBF's Fertilizer Availability Survey covering nearly 6,000 U.S. farmers documents shortages comparable to the post-1973-74 oil shock period. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the UAE-sourced urea, ammonia and potassium sulfate shipments — moving via Hormuz — fell from 40-50 million tonnes annually to 10-15 million tonnes as transits stopped. The shortfall is partly absorbed by Brazil, Russia, Belarus and China exports — but freight and insurance add a $180-220 per tonne premium.
From a supply chain perspective the crisis produces a three-layer lagged effect. First, 2026 harvest season: where U.S. and EU farmers cannot apply or reduce nitrogen in April-May, cereal, corn and soy yields may drop 12-25%, feeding into global commodity prices from late 2026 through H1 2027. Second, uneven country-level vulnerability: Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya and other net fertilizer importers face elevated risks of food inflation and bread-style social unrest — driving additional UN World Food Programme (WFP) charter freight demand. Third, Türkiye's position: Türkiye imports 55-60% of total fertilizer demand; domestic production via BAGFAŞ, İGSAŞ, Tarkim is itself dependent on natural gas supply and phosphate feedstock. A prolonged Hormuz crisis threatens Türkiye's 2027 wheat-barley-corn yields — supporting calls from TMO and the Ministry of Agriculture for strategic fertilizer stockpiles.
Key Takeaways:
1. Grosvenor Group executive trustee Mark Preston said Iran-war fertilizer shortages have raised UK farmer costs by 50-70% and will have a 'dramatic' impact on global food prices next year.
2. ICC Secretary General John Denton warned on Forbes TV of 'deadly food scarcity and price hikes.'
3. The AFBF April survey shows ~70% of U.S. farmers cannot afford the fertilizer they need.
4. Saudi/Qatar/Oman/UAE urea-ammonia-K2SO4 shipments via Hormuz fell from 40-50 Mt/yr to 10-15 Mt/yr; Brazil/Russia/Belarus/China substitution adds $180-220/t in freight and insurance.
5. Türkiye imports 55-60% of fertilizer demand; a prolonged Hormuz crisis threatens 2027 yields and supports TMO/Ministry of Agriculture calls for strategic fertilizer stockpiles.
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