Vincent Clerc, CEO of A.P. Moller — Maersk, the world's second largest ocean carrier, told BBC News that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next few days or weeks would have a "limited impact" on cargo flows. Clerc's point was that pre-war market conditions will not return any time soon and that structural fuel-price pressure may persist throughout 2026. According to Clerc, Maersk's fuel cost has nearly doubled since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, which translates to around $1 billion in additional operating cost for 2026.
Maersk's 7 May Q1 2026 release showed volume growth across all segments, $340 million in EBIT and $1.8 billion in EBITDA. Yet Clerc's BBC remarks expose how the nominally strong headline behind the quarterly print is being shaved down by Hormuz/Red Sea dynamics. The company kept its full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance at $4.5-7.0 billion; the $2.5 billion gap between the high and low end of guidance is the direct measure of uncertainty around safe transit through the Persian Gulf.
For the supply chain, Clerc's message is clear: a Hormuz reopening is not a mechanical "switch back" button. Shippers should expect the trio of freight rates, fuel and insurance premiums to stay elevated as a package. Even with major carriers running flexible network strategies — Saudi road bypass, Jeddah-Aqaba-Alexandria landbridge, Hapag-Lloyd feeder sharing — the long-term unit cost on those routes sits above the historical average. Shippers should prepare to renegotiate H2 2026 contracts at this "new-normal" cost base.
Key Takeaways:
1. Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told BBC News that a Hormuz reopening will have 'limited impact' on cargo flows.
2. Fuel cost has nearly doubled since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, adding around $1 billion to 2026 operating cost.
3. Maersk Q1 2026: $340 million EBIT, $1.8 billion EBITDA, with volume growth across all segments.
4. Full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance was kept at $4.5-7.0 billion; the $2.5B band is the direct measure of Hormuz uncertainty.
5. Shippers should prepare to renegotiate H2 2026 contracts under a new-normal package of freight, fuel and insurance premiums.
[44043]
