Commodities Stage April Rally as Hormuz-Driven Supply Chain Strains Push Copper Up 6% and Brent 7.9%

Global commodity markets staged a broad rally in April 2026 as the impact of the US/Israel-Iran war spilled beyond crude into fertilizers, industrial metals and agriculture. Supply concerns, rising transport costs, fertilizer scarcity and monetary policy uncertainty turned the oil shock into a wider commodity inflation cycle, with Hormuz Strait risks remaining the dominant directional force.

In base metals, OTC prices rose in April per pound by copper 6%, aluminum 1.3%, lead 3.5%, nickel 13.1% and zinc 4.1%. Copper's notable rebound was driven by improving physical demand signals and persistent supply chain fragility. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group projects a global zinc supply deficit in 2026. Investments in renewables, grid infrastructure, battery storage and power generation capacity — combined with electricity demand from AI, electrification and data centers — continue to underpin base metal demand.

In the energy complex, Brent crude rose 7.9% per barrel while Dutch TTF natural gas contracts fell 8.1%. Persisting Middle East tensions and Hormuz Strait supply concerns extended Brent's gains into a fourth consecutive month. With the Strait of Hormuz nearly fully closed, flows through one of the world's most critical oil arteries remain severely constrained, prolonging the disruption pressuring global energy markets.

In precious metals, gold fell 1% and silver 1.8% per ounce, while platinum rose 1.6% and palladium 3.3%. Oil-driven inflation concerns, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields weighed on gold and silver. Persistent global platinum deficits and expectations of higher green-energy demand supported platinum and palladium prices.

In agriculture, ongoing geopolitical pressure squeezed fertilizer supply and cross-border logistics costs. While the prospect of US-Iran peace talks generated short-term optimism, structural supply chain fragilities and a sticky Hormuz risk premium will be decisive for whether the April rally extends into May. Analysts expect physical supply tightness to continue underpinning upside pricing power in the months ahead.

Key Takeaways:
1. Copper rose 6%, nickel 13.1% and zinc 4.1% in April 2026, driving a broad-based base metals rally.
2. Brent crude gained 7.9% per barrel, extending its rally into a fourth straight month on Hormuz supply concerns; Dutch TTF natural gas fell 8.1%.
3. The US/Israel-Iran war broadened the oil shock into a commodity inflation cycle covering fertilizers, industrial metals and agriculture.
4. ILZSG projects a global zinc supply deficit for 2026; AI, electrification and data center electricity demand continue to support base metals.
5. Gold fell 1% and silver 1.8% while platinum rose 1.6% and palladium 3.3%; supply chain fragility will set the direction for May.