U.S. President Donald Trump said the war with Iran may last another three weeks. Trump: "The war with Iran could last another 3 weeks. The U.S. eliminated 8 small boats belonging to Tehran." The statement reinforced the picture of an operational end to the fragile ceasefire reached in February 2026 — a ceasefire eroded over the past week by the UKMTO Fujairah tanker incident, the UAE air defense activation, the drone strike on the Fujairah petroleum industry facility and Brent climbing past USD 114.
On the other side, an Iranian military source denied claims that the U.S. military targeted Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboats. Speaking to Iranian press, the source said: "Following the claim that the U.S. targeted Iranian speedboats, it has been confirmed that no IRGC combat asset was hit. Local-source investigations established that U.S. forces opened fire on two small passenger boats moving from Khasab on the Omani coast toward the Iranian shoreline. Five civilians on board were killed in the attack. The U.S. must answer for this act." The U.S. action was described as "hasty and erroneous" and attributed to fear and panic over IRGC speedboat operations. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Qalibaf wrote on social media: "The new Strait of Hormuz equation is being fixed. Ship traffic and energy transit security have been jeopardized by the blockade imposed by the U.S. and its allies in violation of the ceasefire; their malevolence will of course shrink. We know very well that the continuation of the current situation is unbearable for America; yet we haven't even started."
From a supply chain standpoint, the cluster matters across four dimensions. First, Trump's three-week horizon will reprice 21-25 day war-risk quotas in VLCC, LR2 and LNG charter party negotiations; P&I premiums on Strait of Hormuz routes stay elevated through this window, and the Cape of Good Hope rerouting economics impose an additional USD 1.2-1.8 million per voyage for VLCCs. Second, the short-haul passenger/fishing boat traffic between Khasab and the Iranian coastline is the backbone of the region's grey economy — fuel smuggling, small-scale goods transfer, transit-fee evasion through the Hormuz chokepoint. The claim that civilian boats were fired upon could suspend local maritime logistics on this corridor for 24-72 hours, affecting both Iran-product flows via Khasab to Oman and the reverse-direction supply of Iranian consumer goods. Third, Qalibaf's 'we haven't even started' message — combined with Iran Parliament's recent 12-article Hormuz governance plan (Nikzad), the 14-article negotiation framework (Baghaei) and the 30-day window structure — shows escalation continues within a deliberate tier management; expectations of sudden resolution evaporate. Fourth, if the Iranian claim of hasty and erroneous U.S. targeting is verified, the IMO and P&I clubs will need to re-examine loss-coverage for passenger/fishing/tug/SAR tonnage across the Persian Gulf, lifting small-tonnage premiums basin-wide.
Key Takeaways:
1. Trump: 'The war with Iran could last 3 more weeks; the U.S. eliminated 8 small Tehran-flagged boats.'
2. Iranian military source: no IRGC combat asset was hit; in reality, two passenger boats moving from Khasab to Iran were struck, killing 5 civilians.
3. Iran called the U.S. action 'hasty and erroneous, driven by panic over IRGC speedboat operations.'
4. Iran Parliament Speaker Qalibaf: 'The new Hormuz equation is being fixed; the current situation is unbearable for America — yet we haven't even started.'
5. Supply chain impact: 21-25 day war-risk repricing, Khasab-Iran short corridor suspension risk, basin-wide step-up in Gulf small-tonnage insurance premiums.
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