U.S. logistics sector is slowing in September — with softer freight demand and a cooling warehouse market pulling the sector's growth index to a six-month low. Each month, a coalition of university business schools and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) publish the Logistic Managers' Index (LMI) — measuring the rate of expansion or contraction in key areas of U.S. supply chain performance and providing a snapshot of the sector's health and momentum. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, but downward trending readings — even when above 50 — signal that growth is slowing, offering an early indicator of cooling demand in logistics networks or shifting capacity. According to the LMI released on October 9, total logistics activity recorded a reading of 57.4 in September — roughly two points below August's 59.3. This marks the index's lowest reading since March, suggesting that the late-summer recovery in freight and storage activity is beginning to lose momentum — as companies adjust inventories and prepare for a softer peak season. From a supply chain perspective, the Logistic Managers' Index is published monthly through a partnership with Colorado State University, Rutgers Business School, Rochester Institute of Technology, University of Nevada Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and CSCMP — calculated from surveys of hundreds of logistics managers each month. Zac Rogers, of Colorado State University, is the lead researcher of the LMI.
From a supply chain perspective, the sub-indices of the LMI show transportation capacity in the sector declined 2.2 points between August and September, reading 55.1 — indicating that available cargo capacity is expanding, though at a slower pace, as carriers adapt to softer shipment volumes with demand leveling off. Transportation utilization values also dropped nearly five points month-over-month, reading 55.0 — well below September's eight-year average of 65.1. On the storage side, capacity readings rose roughly one point between August and September to 51.6 — while utilization gained more than three points to 65.3 — suggesting strong inventory movement alongside modest warehouse capacity expansion. Manufacturing PMI (ISM; Institute for Supply Management), Services PMI, S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT Truckload Volume Index, FreightWaves SONAR, OTVI (Outbound Tender Volume Index), and OTRI (Outbound Tender Reject Index) are the primary U.S. freight and logistics indicators. The Logistics Managers Index is unique in providing a simultaneous view of inventories, storage, and transportation — particularly in that regard.
From a supply chain perspective, the U.S. trucking market's principal industry organizations are OOIDA (Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association), ATA (American Trucking Associations), NPTC (National Private Truck Council), and TIA (Transportation Intermediaries Association). The primary federal regulatory authorities are FMCSA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration), FHWA (Federal Highway Administration), and STB (Surface Transportation Board). Principal transportation modes include FTL (Full Truckload), LTL (Less than Truckload), parcel, intermodal, drayage, and final mile. Major U.S. truck carriers include Knight-Swift Transportation, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Schneider National, Werner Enterprises, U.S. Xpress, Heartland Express, Marten Transport, Covenant Logistics, Old Dominion Freight Line, XPO Logistics, Saia, ArcBest, Estes Express, R+L Carriers, TForce Freight (formerly UPS Freight), and Yellow Corp (which filed for bankruptcy in 2023). Primary parcel carriers are UPS, FedEx, USPS, Amazon Logistics, OnTrac, and LaserShip. Major Class I railroad carriers include BNSF Railway, Union Pacific, CSX Transportation, Norfolk Southern, Canadian National (CN), Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), and Kansas City Southern (now part of CPKC).
From a supply chain perspective, the U.S. warehouse market includes leading industrial REITs such as Prologis (the world's largest logistics real estate investment trust; 1.2B+ sq ft), Public Storage, Extra Space Storage, Iron Mountain, Americold (cold chain), Lineage Logistics (cold chain), Duke Realty (being acquired by Prologis), STAG Industrial, EastGroup Properties, Rexford Industrial, and First Industrial. Principal types of logistics infrastructure include 3PL (Third-Party Logistics), 4PL (Fourth-Party Logistics), contract logistics, fulfillment center, distribution center, and cross-dock. Leading global 3PL and contract logistics players are DHL Supply Chain, XPO Logistics, GXO Logistics (spun off from XPO), Ryder Supply Chain Solutions, NFI Industries, Penske Logistics, FedEx Logistics, UPS Supply Chain Solutions, C.H. Robinson (Robinson Fresh), Expeditors International, Kuehne+Nagel, DSV (DSV Air & Sea), DB Schenker (being acquired by DSV in 2025), Maersk Logistics & Services, Geodis, and Bolloré Logistics (being acquired by CMA CGM). Peak season in the U.S. traditionally falls between October and December — encompassing retail shipment peaks during Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas, and Boxing Day. Ultimately, the LMI's September reading of 57.4 is concrete evidence that the U.S. logistics sector is entering the fourth quarter of 2026 with a soft landing.
Key Takeaways:
1. LMI reads 57.4 in September — the lowest level since March.
2. Transportation capacity at 55.1 with utilization at 55.0 — below the eight-year average of 65.1.
3. Warehouse utilization rises to 65.3 while capacity signals modest expansion at 51.6.
4. CSCMP plus university coalition publishes the LMI monthly.
5. U.S. logistics is preparing for a softer peak season.
