President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to impose tariffs against any countries that sell oil to Cuba — escalating efforts to choke off the island nation's energy imports. In the order, Trump asserted that Cuba's policies and practices pose "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to U.S. national security and foreign policy, and threatened to impose additional tariffs and trade restrictions on third-party countries that continue supplying crude oil or refined petroleum products to Cuba — effectively extending U.S. pressure beyond the island itself.
According to the Associated Press, Mexico would likely feel that pressure most given its history of supplying oil to Cuba despite longstanding American sanctions. "The United States will act to protect the foreign policy, national security, and national interests of the United States, including by holding the Cuban regime accountable for its malign actions and relationships, while also remaining committed to supporting the Cuban people's aspirations for a free and democratic society," the executive order reads.
Cuba has faced a significant energy crisis over the last year as U.S. economic sanctions have ramped up. Mexican state-owned oil company Pemex reported shipping an estimated 20,000 barrels per day to Cuba between January and September of 2025 — with that number slipping to roughly 7,000 barrels following a September visit to Mexico City by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum acknowledged on January 27 that Pemex had temporarily paused some oil shipments to Cuba — but claimed the decision stemmed from supply fluctuations rather than political reasons.
From a supply chain perspective, this executive order broadens the scope of the secondary sanctions regime in global energy trade. For third-party countries exporting to the U.S. market, ties with Cuba now constitute a new compliance risk in terms of tariff exposure. For oil companies, shipowners and insurance providers, this calls for a fundamental rethink of route planning and counterparty screening processes.
