Russia's Crude Oil Exports Slump to Lowest Since September
Russia's Crude Oil Exports Slump to Lowest Since September
According to a report published by Bloomberg on November 20, 2024, Russia's overseas crude oil exports have declined to their lowest levels since September. Shipments from Baltic ports are running significantly below October's rates. The four-week average flow through November 17 fell to 3.28 million barrels per day, down approximately 150,000 barrels daily. This decline represents the largest weekly export drop since early July.
At Russia's main Baltic port of Primorsk, 16 cargo loadings were scheduled for the first 17 days of this month, compared with 22 loadings planned for the same period in the previous month. This situation, coupled with the reduced loading program seen in October, suggests that crude available for export may decline as Russia's refining capacity is expected to increase again in the second week.
Total shipments from western ports declined by approximately 30% compared to the previous week. The number of tankers departing from Pacific ports remained unchanged. All cargoes departing from eastern ports so far this month are destined for China, while the majority of shipments from Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports are heading to India, with Turkey a distant second.
The European Union is working on a new sanctions package targeting the shadow fleet tankers Russia uses to deliver its oil to markets. EU member states continue discussions on details, with the package requiring unanimous approval from the bloc's 27 countries. This step is being taken as Slovakia seeks to extend sanctions exemptions allowing it to sell fuels produced from Russian crude in neighboring Czech Republic.
According to vessel-tracking data and port agent reports, a total of 26 tankers loaded 19.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil during the week through November 17. This represents a sharp decline from the previous week's 24.98 million barrels. Daily crude oil flows fell to 2.83 million barrels, reaching the lowest level since the first weeks of July. The decline resulted from reduced flows from Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports; Pacific port shipments remained steady.
Russia ended its export targets at the end of May 2024, opting to limit production in line with the OPEC+ group of oil producers. The production target is set at 8.978 million barrels per day through the end of December, and a relaxation of some production cuts was postponed for the second time. Moscow committed to making deeper production cuts in October and November 2024, followed by compensating between March and September 2025 for oil pumped above this year's OPEC+ quota.
Kremlin oil revenues declined by approximately $380 million to $1.25 billion due to both reduced export volumes and a decline in weekly average prices of Russia's main crude streams. This is the lowest level since January. The price decline aligns with a general decrease in oil prices overall, prompting renewed concerns about demand growth. Exports from Baltic ports fell approximately $2.80 per barrel compared to the previous week. Black Sea loading for Urals fell approximately $2.70 per barrel, while the main Pacific grade ESPO declined approximately $2.50 per barrel. Prices delivered to India fell approximately $2.40 per barrel. The four-week average revenue also declined from $1.55 billion to $1.47 billion. Based on this trend, Baltic port export prices fell nearly $0.50 per barrel during the four-week period through November 17 compared to the period through November 10. Main Pacific grade ESPO prices declined approximately $0.30.
Key Points:
Russia's crude oil exports from Baltic ports have declined significantly compared to October.
Four-week average daily flow fell to 3.28 million barrels, marking the largest decline since July.
Primorsk port loading schedule was planned at 16 cargoes for the first 17 days of November, compared with 22 cargoes loaded in October.
Western port shipments fell by 30%, while Pacific port shipments remained stable.
The European Union continues discussions on new sanctions against Russia's shadow fleet tankers.
Kremlin oil revenues fell to $1.25 billion due to declining export volumes and crude prices.
Russia continues to restrict production in line with the OPEC+ agreement and plans deeper cuts in October-November 2024.
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