Russia's Crude Oil Exports at Lowest Levels Since September
Russia's Crude Oil Exports at Lowest Levels Since September
According to a Bloomberg report, Russia's overseas crude oil exports have declined to their lowest levels since September. Shipments from Baltic ports are running well below October's pace. The four-week average flow through November 17 fell to 3.28 million barrels per day, down approximately 150,000 barrels daily. This decline represents the largest weekly export drop since early July.
Russia's main Baltic port, Primorsk, has 16 cargo loadings scheduled for the first 17 days of this month, compared with 22 planned loadings during the same period last month. This situation, coupled with the reduction in loading schedules seen in October, indicates that the amount of crude oil available for export could decline as Russia ramps up refining capacity in the second week.
Total shipments from Western ports declined by approximately 30 percent compared to the previous week. The number of tankers departing from Pacific ports remained flat. All cargoes leaving eastern ports this month have been destined for China, while the majority of cargoes from Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports are heading to India, with Turkey in a distant second place.
The European Union is working on a new sanctions package targeting shadow fleet tankers that Russia uses to deliver its oil to market. EU member states continue to discuss the details, and the package requires unanimous approval from the bloc's 27 countries. This move is being taken because Slovakia is seeking to extend sanctions exemptions to allow it to sell fuel produced from Russian crude to neighboring Czech Republic.
According to vessel-tracking data and port agent reports, a total of 26 tankers loaded 19.8 million barrels of Russian crude during the week through November 17. This represents a sharp decline from 24.98 million barrels the previous week. Daily crude oil flows fell to 2.83 million barrels, reaching their lowest levels since the first weeks of July. The decline resulted from reduced flows from Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports; shipments from Pacific ports remained flat.
Russia ended its export targets at the end of May 2024, choosing to limit production in line with the OPEC+ petroleum producers group. The production target is set at 8.978 million barrels per day through the end of December, and the easing of some production cuts has been postponed for the second time. Moscow committed to making deeper production cuts in October and November 2024, followed by compensating for the oil pumped above this year's OPEC+ quota between March and September 2025.
Kremlin oil revenues fell to $1.25 billion, down approximately $380 million, due to declining export volumes coupled with a drop in weekly average prices of Russia's main crude oil flows. This is the lowest level since January. The price decline is consistent with the general decline in oil prices and has raised renewed concerns about demand growth. Exports from Baltic ports fell approximately $2.80 per barrel from the previous week. Black Sea loading Urals declined approximately $2.70 per barrel, while the main Pacific grade ESPO fell approximately $2.50 per barrel. Prices delivered to India fell approximately $2.40 per barrel. The four-week average revenue also declined to $1.47 billion from $1.55 billion. On this basis, the price of shipments from Baltic ports fell by nearly $0.50 per barrel for the four-week period through November 17 compared to the period through November 10. Prices for the main Pacific grade ESPO fell approximately $0.30.
Key Points:
Russia's crude oil exports from Baltic ports declined significantly compared to October.
The four-week average daily flow fell to 3.28 million barrels, the largest decline since July.
The loading schedule at Primorsk port was planned at 16 cargoes for the first 17 days of November, compared with 22 cargoes loaded in October.
Shipments from Western ports fell by 30 percent, while shipments from Pacific ports remained flat.
The European Union is continuing negotiations on new sanctions targeting Russia's shadow fleet tankers.
Kremlin oil revenues fell to $1.25 billion due to declines in export volumes and crude oil prices.
Russia continues to limit production under the OPEC+ agreement and plans deeper cuts in October-November 2024.
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