Port of Long Beach Maintains Record Volumes Through 2025 Despite Tariff Pressures
Port of Long Beach Maintains Record Volumes Through 2025 Despite Tariff Pressures
Port of Long Beach has demonstrated strong performance throughout 2025, maintaining high cargo volumes despite ongoing tariff uncertainties in U.S.–China trade. According to port management, retailers and importers' practice of anticipating tariff increases and filling inventories early (frontloading) supported volumes throughout the year.
End of October: 8.2 million TEU — 4.1% increase
The port processed 8.2 million TEU in January–October, achieving a 4.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024. 2024 was Long Beach's busiest year on record (9.6 million TEU).
CEO Mario Cordero told media briefing:
"We are quite close to matching, or even exceeding, last year's record of 9.6 million TEU by year-end."
Cordero also emphasized that throughout 2025, the port has operated with zero congestion and seamless operations, in contrast to the bottlenecks experienced in the post-pandemic period.
Frontloading artificially inflated volumes
COO Noel Hacegaba noted that tariff-driven artificial peaks occurred in 2025:
The busiest months were January 2025 (Trump's inauguration)
And July 2025 (just before the 90-day reprieve from country-specific reciprocal tariffs expired)
According to Hacegaba:
"The frontloading trend continued this year and was the primary driver of record volumes."
This behavior led retailers in particular to bring in holiday merchandise much earlier to avoid high cost risks.
Volume decline inevitable in final two months
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates data:
Volume declines are expected at U.S. ports in November–December 2025.
The reason: holiday season merchandise was largely imported in the first half of the year.
NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold stated on November 7:
"Store shelves are full and price pressures have been largely minimized. This is because retailers pulled in imports early to avoid tariffs."
The NRF projects 2025 will close with a total 2.3% volume decline.
2026: First-quarter trough, mid-year recovery
Looking into 2026, forecasts are mixed:
Larger volume declines are expected nationally in Q1 2026.
Tariff impacts will be more visible to retailer and consumer pricing.
According to Cordero:
"Consumers will feel the tariff impact more acutely in 2026. Despite this, we expect modest volume growth for 2026."
This outlook is supported by a temporary accord reached between the U.S. and China in October:
Some tariffs were reduced,
Reciprocal penalty tariffs were suspended.
Cordero:
"We expect increased volume from China. However, the real question in coming years will be how much global production shifts from China to Southeast Asia."
Hackett Associates: Uncertainty at highest levels
Founder Ben Hackett noted in his November 7 report:
"Market forecasting is extremely difficult due to tariff dynamics. We expect a modest decline in 2025 and a more significant decline in Q1 2026."
Key Takeaways:
Long Beach processed 8.2 million TEU in January–October 2025, maintaining strong momentum.
Primary driver of volume growth: excessive frontloading due to tariff uncertainty.
Volume declines are expected in the final two months of the year.
NRF: Forecasts a 2.3% decline for 2025 overall.
2026: Sharp first-quarter decline, modest recovery expected for the year.
U.S.–China accord may provide some volume support.
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Author: SedatOnat.com
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