Drewry: Crude Tankers Could Outpace Product Tankers by 2026
Drewry: Crude Tankers Could Outpace Product Tankers by 2026
UK-based maritime consultancy Drewry Shipping Consultants forecasts that crude tankers will outperform product tankers in 2026. The assessment was presented at a Drewry tanker market webinar held on December 9, 2025. Speaking at the presentation, Rajesh Verma characterized 2025 as a "mixed bag" for the tanker market, noting that crude tanker rates have been strengthening in the year's final quarter while product tanker earnings have retreated from 2024 peaks.
Drewry's core thesis centers on supply-side growth differentials as the primary driver of 2026 performance divergence. The consultancy forecasts crude tanker fleet growth of approximately 2% in 2026, following already-weak fleet expansion in 2025, indicating supply pressures will remain contained. By contrast, product tanker segment fleet growth is estimated at roughly 6% in both 2025 and 2026, with similar expansion rates expected to continue.
The intensity of product tanker deliveries is particularly noteworthy. According to Drewry data, product tanker deliveries in 2025 nearly tripled compared to the combined total of the previous two years. In 2026, deliveries are projected to exceed 300 vessels. This picture underscores emerging overcapacity risks in the product tanker segment, exerting downward pressure on freight earnings.
On the demand side, Drewry assumes global oil demand growth of approximately 0.7% for 2026, pointing to growth momentum similar to 2025. However, Drewry emphasizes that this outlook carries significant uncertainties. OPEC production policy, potential inventory builds, floating storage utilization, and shifts in Russian trade patterns are among the factors that could directly influence tanker demand.
In particular, the possibility of floating storage holds potential to generate additional demand for crude tankers. Holding inventories at sea can support ton-mile demand in specific periods and improve crude tanker utilization rates. Conversely, for product tankers, anticipated recovery in Suez Canal traffic emerges as a notable risk, potentially shortening the extended routes that have recently supported product tanker utilisation levels.
Drewry notes that market signals are also confirming this divergence. On the asset prices front, second-hand and newbuilding values for product tankers show weakness, while crude tanker values maintain more resilient momentum. A similar pattern appears in the equity indices tracked by the firm. Throughout 2025, publicly traded companies focused on crude tankers have delivered stronger year-to-date gains compared to those in the product tanker segment.
These indicators show that investor sentiment is also aligning in favor of the crude tanker segment as 2026 approaches. When supply-demand balance, asset prices, and financial performance metrics are evaluated together, the conclusion emerges that the crude tanker market is progressing on firmer footing compared to product tankers.
In summary, Drewry's 2026 projections point to a marked performance divergence in the tanker market. Supported by constrained fleet growth and inventory dynamics, crude tankers are moving into a more advantageous position, while product tankers face more challenging circumstances due to an intensive delivery schedule. This outlook heightens the importance of more selective, segment-based strategic approaches for shipowners, investors, and charterers alike.
Key Points
Drewry expects crude tankers to outperform product tankers in 2026
Crude tanker fleet growth is projected at approximately 2% in 2026
Product tanker fleet growth remains elevated at approximately 6% in both 2025 and 2026
300+ product tanker deliveries are anticipated in 2026
Floating storage and inventory builds can support crude tanker demand
Asset prices and equity performance show greater resilience in the crude tanker segment
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News Link: https://en.portnews.ru/news/385844/
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Author: SedatOnat.com
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