November 2025 Class 8 Truck Orders Plunge: Ten-Month Contraction Pressures 2026 Outlook
November 2025 Class 8 Truck Orders Plunge: Ten-Month Contraction Pressures 2026 Outlook
Class 8 truck orders, a leading indicator of the U.S. heavy commercial vehicle market, continued their downward trajectory in November 2025. According to preliminary data released by FTR and ACT Research, November net orders showed pronounced contraction on both a monthly and year-over-year basis, signaling a weak start to 2026 for the sector.
According to FTR data, November Class 8 net orders totaled 20,200 units. This figure represents:
a 17% monthly decline,
a 44% year-over-year decline.
Additionally, November's order level fell well short of the 10-year average of 28,910 units. Based on FTR's 12-month rolling order calculation, the industry posted 214,797 Class 8 orders over the year—a figure representing one of the weakest trends in recent years.
This decline follows a brief positive movement in October. While October orders of 24,300 units showed an 18% month-over-month increase, they fell 22% year-over-year—marking the tenth consecutive year-over-year decline.
FTR's analysis points to several key drivers of November's weakness:
Weak freight demand and depressed spot rates,
Fleets postponing replacement and expansion plans,
Persistent excess capacity pressures,
Elevated financing and equipment costs,
Tariff volatility,
EPA'27 NOx rule uncertainty,
Weak carrier profitability.
Both vocational and on-highway segments declined on monthly and year-over-year bases, though the vocational segment showed relatively better performance. This underscores that a "cautious demand" outlook remains in effect as 2026 begins.
FTR notes that risks are mounting, particularly for the 2026 order cycle. Cumulative net orders for September through November are down 36% year-over-year. Nevertheless, FTR identifies two positive factors that could lend modest support:
Greater clarity on tariff frameworks:
New tariff structures have increased costs but in a "measured and targeted" manner, creating room for supply chain diversification and reshoring.Removal of EPA'27 extended warranty requirements delivering meaningful cost relief:
Where NOx rules were previously expected to lift total equipment costs by nearly 100%, elimination of extended warranty requirements could cut this cost increase in half.
Despite these two positive developments, FTR Senior Analyst Dan Moyer emphasizes that fleet investment decisions remain under pressure:
"Improved clarity has not been enough to offset weak freight fundamentals, limited profitability, elevated capital costs…"
According to Moyer, fleets are redirecting focus toward cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization priorities, which is delaying meaningful equipment demand recovery.
ACT Research data presents a similar picture. According to ACT, November Class 8 net orders came in at 19,700 units, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.7%. November is typically considered the third-strongest order month of the year; thus, this decline reflects performance below expectations.
ACT Research Analyst Carter Vieth identifies the core issue as fleets' lack of profitability:
"Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom… demand in key freight sectors is lagging."
According to Vieth, while reduced EPA'27 uncertainty is a positive step, strong order momentum should not be expected until underlying economic fundamentals improve.
In summary, November 2025 data reveals that the Class 8 truck market remains under pressure, and the 2026 order cycle faces a challenging outlook. Despite tariff and regulatory clarity, the market is unlikely to see strong order recovery without improvements in freight demand, pricing power, and fleet profitability.
Key Takeaways:
November 2025 Class 8 orders fell 44% year-over-year and 17% monthly.
12-month rolling total: 214,797 units (weak trend).
Fleets are prioritizing cost control and asset utilization over investment.
2026 order cycle at risk; September–November cumulative orders down 36% year-over-year.
EPA'27 uncertainty declining while freight demand remains severely weak.
ACT data similarly points to decline (19,700 units, year-over-year –4.7%).
----------
--------------------
Author: SedatOnat.com
--------------------
!!! ANNOUNCEMENT !!!
Our Book "How to Buy ERP?" Has Been Published on Google Play Books.
#What is ERP?
https://www.sedatonat.com/erpnasilalinir You can download and read it free of charge via this link.
We would be delighted to hear your feedback.
Wishing you happy reading.