Logistics

U.S. Trucking Freight Demand Plummets During Peak Season

U.S. Trucking Freight Demand Plummets During Peak Season

Sedat Onat
U.S. trucking demand declined approximately 33% between April and October 2025, showing severe slowdown despite the pre-holiday peak season. Tariff pressures, excess capacity, and elevated inventory levels are weakening the sector's outlook.

The U.S. trucking industry is facing a pronounced decline in demand despite expectations for a peak season in the second half of 2025. While 41% of logistics professionals reported "high demand" in April, this figure fell to just 26% by October 2025. These figures are based on a survey conducted by Tech.co with more than 270 logistics experts.

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According to the survey, the sector's traditional seasonal rhythm has been disrupted: instead of the typical increase in shipment volumes leading up to the Christmas and year-end period, shipments are below expectations and carriers are facing empty capacity.

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Tariffs intensifying financial pressure
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Tech.co editor Jack Turner stated in a November 19 statement that this decline is alarming for the industry.
\n20% of respondents answered that "our top priority is managing financial pressures".
\nThese pressures include:

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  • Widespread tariffs imposed by the U.S.,

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  • Weakening in global trade,

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  • Rising operating costs
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Tariffs' particular impact on imports from China, India, Europe, and Mexico has led to declining freight volumes throughout the supply chain.

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Industry research confirms the decline
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Consistent with Tech.co's findings:

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  • DAT Freight & Analytics reported that trucking freight volumes fell for the fourth consecutive month in October.

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  • ACT Research stated in its October 23 report that the sector is experiencing an "extended correction cycle".

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The drivers of this cycle include:

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  • Soft demand,

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  • Excess capacity (too many trucks, too little freight),

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  • Increasing cost pressures due to tariffs.

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Many shippers built up their inventories in mid-year, immediately before tariff increases took effect. This pulled down expected shipment demand for the October–December period.

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Port data also shows weakness
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Los Angeles Port reported volume losses of 4% month-over-month in October and more than 6% year-over-year.
\nPort Executive Director Gene Seroka said in his November 18 briefing:

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  • U.S. retail and manufacturing sectors have full inventory levels,

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  • Therefore, ports should expect more soft volume in the final two months of the year.

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According to Seroka, the "stocking rush" that occurred before the broad-based U.S. tariffs that took effect in early August triggered today's slowdown.

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Fragile outlook across the sector
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As demand falls, industry operators are struggling with:

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  • Low freight rates,

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  • Rising operating costs (fuel, labor, insurance),

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  • Tightening financing conditions.

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Some carriers, particularly small fleets, report having to operate at a loss due to excess capacity.

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On the manufacturing and consumption side:

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  • The U.S. labor market is moving cautiously,

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  • Some retailers and manufacturers are focused on drawing down existing inventory rather than placing new orders.

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This dynamic is keeping trucking weak even during the year's busiest period.

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What does the sector's future hold?
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Experts expect that in the first half of 2026:

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  • Tariffs will continue to weigh on trade,

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  • Inventory destocking will continue,

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  • Excess capacity will continue to pressure carriers.

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For sustainable recovery:

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  • Trade flows must normalize,

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  • Excess capacity must be removed from the market,

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  • Tariff impacts must ease
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Key takeaways:
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  • U.S. trucking freight demand fell approximately 33% between April and October.

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  • Demand remains weak even during peak season: only 26% reported "high demand" in October.

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  • Tariffs are weighing on trade and freight volumes; financial pressures are mounting.

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  • Los Angeles Port lost 4% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year volume in October.

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  • The sector is being hit by a combination of excess capacity + weak demand + tariff shock.

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News Link: https://www.supplychainbrain.com/articles/42881-trucking-freight-demand-falls-off-as-peak-season-weakens

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Author: SedatOnat.com

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