US Air Freight Shifts from China to Taiwan and Vietnam
US Air Freight Shifts from China to Taiwan and Vietnam
The US termination of its de minimis exemption in May 2025 is driving a structural break in trans-Pacific air cargo trade. Low-value e-commerce shipments, long concentrated on the China–US route, are declining sharply, replaced by high-volume and more regular air cargo imports originating from Taiwan and Vietnam. Data published by consulting firm Trade and Transport Group indicates this directional shift is no longer a temporary fluctuation but a permanent restructuring of trade patterns.
According to the data, in the first nine months of 2025, US air cargo imports from Taiwan surged approximately 91% year-on-year. During the same period, air cargo volumes originating from Vietnam similarly demonstrated robust growth. By contrast, China–US air freight traffic is declining noticeably. This pattern demonstrates that changes to US customs policy are directly reshaping logistical flows.
Trade and Transport Group Managing Director Frederic Horst emphasizes that the transformation is particularly noteworthy from a product composition perspective. According to Horst, the decline in air cargo traffic from China to the US—principally in computers and parts and industrial equipment—is being more than offset by shipments from Taiwan and Vietnam. This signals not only a shift at the country level but also changing preferences regarding manufacturing footprint and assembly hub positioning within supply chains.
The sharp decline in de minimis traffic particularly affects low-value, high-frequency e-commerce shipments. Conversely, a meaningful increase is being observed in regular air cargo volumes. This shift suggests air cargo is increasingly becoming the preferred transport mode for B2B shipments, semi-finished goods, and high-value industrial products. Air cargo is thus gradually moving away from the e-commerce-heavy profile it gained during the pandemic.
Analysts note that more than just US regulations underpin this shift; production strategies across Asia also play a role. Taiwan stands out as a strong manufacturing and export hub for semiconductors, computer components, and advanced technology equipment. Vietnam has rapidly become a production and assembly center for multinational corporations under the China+1 strategy in recent years. Both countries offer a structure better suited to the US market's needs in terms of both air cargo capacity and product profile.
From a sector perspective, this development presents new balancing challenges for air cargo carriers and air cargo forwarders. The repositioning of China-originating capacity necessitates updates to network planning, capacity allocation, and yield management strategies. Simultaneously, capacity pressures and upside risks to freight rates on the Taiwan–US and Vietnam–US routes are emerging.
Experts concur that this trend should not be viewed merely as a short-term regulatory effect. The removal of the de minimis exemption is understood as part of a broader protectionist approach in US trade policy. Within this framework, country-level shifts in air cargo flows are expected to persist into 2026 and beyond.
In conclusion, the China-centered structure of US air cargo imports is dissolving, replaced by a trade model centered on Taiwan and Vietnam that is more regular and industrial in character. This transformation emerges as a critical inflection point for both global supply chains and strategic planning in the air cargo sector.
Key Points
The US eliminated its de minimis exemption in May 2025
China–US air freight volumes are declining noticeably
US air cargo imports from Taiwan increased approximately 91% in the first nine months
Vietnam is capturing a significant share of production and assembly activities shifting from China
Low-value e-commerce shipments are declining while regular air cargo volumes are increasing
The shift is reshaping air cargo network planning and capacity management
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Author: SedatOnat.com
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