Global Multilateral Trade Strengthens Despite U.S. Tariffs
Global Multilateral Trade Strengthens Despite U.S. Tariffs
DHL and New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business released a report showing that while new U.S. customs tariffs are disrupting global trade, they are unable to halt it.
The research reveals that global trade in the first half of 2025 showed its fastest growth since 2010, and world trade volume gained strength despite the U.S.'s protectionist policies.
U.S. Now Has Limited Impact on Global Trade
The report clearly demonstrates that the U.S. economy is not large enough to determine the direction of global trade.
As of 2024, only 13% of global merchandise imports go to the U.S., while 9% of exports originate from the U.S.
Therefore, while Washington's tariffs create localized turbulence in global trade, they are not on a scale to alter the overall balance.
According to the DHL report, many countries are not following the U.S.'s broad-based tariff increases, which allows trade to be redirected through different regions.
Global Trade Continues to Grow
According to the special update of the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker 2025, global trade volume is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% during the 2025–2029 period. This rate is nearly the same as the pace of the previous decade.
However, before the new wave of tariffs in January 2025, this rate was forecasted at 3.1%.
Due to the impact of tariffs, the growth forecast was revised down to 2.5%.
On a regional basis, the steepest decline occurred in North America:
Growth expectations of 2.7% in January 2025 declined to 1.5% as of September.
Declines in other regions remained more limited.
Nevertheless, according to DHL's analysis, global trade is structurally resilient and growth is expected to continue steadily over the next four years.
China Strengthens Trade with ASEAN and Africa
China, the country most affected by the tariffs implemented by the U.S., is offsetting the impact by redirecting its exports to different markets.
China compensated for the decline in shipments to the U.S. with increased trade with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), Africa, the European Union, and other regions.
During the same period, U.S. importers also accelerated their imports through frontloading before the tariff increases took effect.
This situation temporarily raised U.S. import volume in the first quarter of 2025, but over the long term, weakening in North American trade flows is expected.
DHL: Trade Barriers Cannot Stop Global Creativity
DHL Express CEO John Pearson made the following assessment following the report's release:
"Trade barriers do not serve the world's interests. However, we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world when it comes to doing business."
Pearson emphasized the resilience of the global economy, noting that trade will remain strong thanks to innovative business models, digitalization, and regional cooperation.
U.S. Tariffs: Slowing Down But Not Stopping Trade
According to the report, U.S. tariffs are slowing the pace of global trade growth, but they do not have the effect of stopping trade.
Post-tariff growth rate (2.5%) still tracks close to levels expected at the beginning of the 2020s.
Additionally, the diversification of global trade flows reduces dependence on a single economy, thereby creating a more balanced trade network.
This is particularly strengthening supply chains between Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Conclusion: Global Trade Is Evolving Toward a Multipolar Structure
The DHL report clearly shows that global trade continues to grow despite the U.S.'s protectionist policies.
In the new era, the center of trade is shifting from a single country to regional networks.
The rising role of China, ASEAN, the EU, and Africa signals that the future of world trade is shaping a multipolar structure.
Despite the obstacles ahead for global trade, innovation, diversity, and resilience principles support the sustainable growth of the world economy.
Key Takeaways:
According to the DHL and NYU Stern report, global trade in the first half of 2025 recorded its strongest growth since 2010.
The U.S. accounts for only 13% of global imports and 9% of exports.
Global trade's annual growth forecast was reduced from 3.1% to 2.5%.
North America experienced the steepest decline, while other regions saw limited revisions.
China offset U.S. losses with ASEAN, Africa, and EU markets.
DHL CEO John Pearson emphasized global cooperation, stating "Trade barriers cannot stop the global desire to do business."
Conclusion: Global trade is entering a new era that is multipolar, resilient, and digitalization-focused.
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